Evaluation of the ‘Comprehensive Plan for the Development of Border Areas’ based on the Prediction of the Spatial Structure of the Border Area (접경지역 공간구조 예측에 따른 ‘접경지역 발전종합계획’ 타당성 평가)

Shin Hyewon (신혜원); Kim Chulmin (김철민); Koh Kyoungtaek (고경택); Kim Youngseok (김영석)

doi:10.15793/kspr.2024.122..003

Evaluation of the ‘Comprehensive Plan for the Development of Border Areas’ based on the Prediction of the Spatial Structure of the Border Area

The Korea Spatial Planning Review
2024, 122(), pp.43~58
DOI : 10.15793/kspr.2024.122..003
Publisher : 국토연구원
Research Area :
Received : July 19, 2024
Accepted : August 13, 2024
Published : September 30, 2024

Shin Hyewon ¹, Kim Chulmin ², Koh Kyoungtaek ¹, Kim Youngseok ¹

¹한국건설기술연구원
²성결대학교 국제개발협력학과

Accredited

ABSTRACT

This study aims to evaluate development projects and suggest future directions for the border regions of South Korea by analyzing the predicted resident/floating population and reclassifying development projects proposed in the "Comprehensive Development Plan for Border Areas" across 15 cities and counties. As a result, regions such as Goseong-gun, Yanggu-gun, Chuncheon-si, Yeoncheon-si, and Ganghwa-gun showed positive predictions for floating population, indicating that the direction of development projects is appropriate. However, Inje-gun, which is favorable for securing a settled population, is also emphasizing floating population, suggesting a high possibility of reduced efficiency in development projects. The negative predictions for both settled and floating populations in Cheolwon-gun, Ongjin-gun, and Hwacheon-gun suggest that these regions may face difficulties in securing efficiency for their development projects. This is because these regions have a relatively weaker willingness to prioritize floating population when pursuing development projects. Paju-si and Pocheon-si, which are favorable for securing both settled and floating populations, are focusing on projects to attract permanent and floating populations, respectively. In the case of Paju-si, it appears that establishing tourism and non-tourism industrial complexes in connection with Goyang-si and Gimpo-si would be an effective strategy. For Pocheon-si, it seems that pursuing projects to secure settled population would be more effective if centered around Sohol-eup and Naechon-myeon, which are located on the border with Yangju-si and Uijeongbu-si.

KEYWORDS

Border Regions, Forecasting Settled/Mobile Population, Comprehensive Plan for the Development of the Border Region, Spatial Markov Model

Journal Copyright Policy

No CCL information provided

Citation status

* References for papers published after 2025 are currently being built.

[report] 강민조 / 2018 / 경기북부 접경지역의 균형개발을 위한 종합 발전구상과 실천방안연구Ⅰ / 국토연구원

[web] 김기준 / 2023 / 접경지 발전계획 ‘포기’ 절반 이상이 ‘신규’ 사업 / 인천일보 / https://www.incheonilbo.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=1205020

[confproc] 김상빈 / 2003 / 접경지역연구의 이론적고찰 / 대한지리학회 학술대회논문집 : 19~24

[journal] 김의준 / 2014 / Analysis of Geographical Distribution of Creative Industries in Seoul Using Spatial Markov Chain / 서울도시연구 15(3) : 147~164

[journal] 김재한 / 2016 / Socioeconomic and Legal Status of the Korean Border Area / 한국지방정치학회보 6(1) : 55~101

[report] 민성희 / 2018 / 저성장시대에 대응한 도시·지역계획 수립의 합리화 방안 연구 / 국토연구원

[report] 안전행정부 / 2011 / 접경지역 발전종합계획

[report] 안홍기 / 2014 / 지역개발사업의 과다수요추정원인과 개선방안에 관한 연구 / 국토연구원

[report] 양철 / 2022 / 접경지역 지원 법·제도 개선방안 / 강원연구원

[report] 이소영 / 2022 / 접경지역 특화발전방안 연구 / 한국지방행정연구원

[journal] 이소현 / 2018 / Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Occupational Skills in the Capital Region, Korea: A Spatial Markov Chain Approach / 국토연구 99 : 131~150

[other] / 2011 / 접경지역 지원 특별법 / 법률 제10653호(5. 19., 전부개정). 제2조 1호

[web] 행정안전부 / 인구감소지역 지정 / https://www.mois.go.kr/frt/sub/a06/b06/populationDecline/screen.do

[journal] 허훈 / 2007 / The Character and Cooperation Policy of Border Area in Korea: Focused on the Northern Part of Gyeonggi Province / 현대사회와 행정 17(3) : 127~150

[journal] Bosker, M. / 2009 / The spatial evolution of regional GDP disparities in the ‘old’ and the ‘new’ Europe / Papers in Regional Science 88(1) : 3~27

[journal] Fingleton, B. / 1997 / Specification and testing of Markov chain models: An application to convergence in the European / Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 59 : 385~403

[journal] Fingleton, B. / 1999 / Spurious spatial regression : Some Monte Carlo results with a spatial unit root and spatial cointegration / Journal of Regional Science 39 : 1~19

[journal] Hammond, G. W. / 2004 / Metropolitan/non-metropolitan divergence : a spatial Markov chains approach / Regional Science 83(3) : 543~563

[book] Holsti, O. / 1969 / Content Analysis for the Social Sciences and Humanities / Addison-Wesley

[journal] Le Gallo, J. / 2004 / Space-Time Analysis of GDP Disparities among European Regions : A Markov Chains Approach / International Regional Science Review 27(2) : 138~163

[journal] Le Gallo, J. / 2008 / Spatial analysis of urban growth in Spain, 1900–2001 / Empirical Economics 34 : 59~80

[journal] Mossi, M. / 2003 / Growth dynamics and space in Brazil / International Regional Science Review 26(3) : 393~418

[journal] Quah, D. / 1993 / Galton’s Fallacy and Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis / Scandinavian Journal of Economics 95(4) : 427~443

[journal] Rey, S. / 2001 / Spatial empirics for economic growth and convergence / Geographical Analysis 33(3) : 195~214

[journal] Schettini, D. / 2011 / Neighborhood and efficiency in manufacturing in Brazilian regions : A spatial Markov chain analysis / International Regional Science Review 34(4) : 397~418

[web] / 한국관광 데이터랩 / https://datalab.visitkorea.or.kr/datalab/portal/main/getMainForm.do

KJCKorea
Journal Central

The Korea Spatial Planning Review 2025 KCI Impact Factor : 2.35

Evaluation of the ‘Comprehensive Plan for the Development of Border Areas’ based on the Prediction of the Spatial Structure of the Border Area

ABSTRACT

KEYWORDS

Journal Copyright Policy

Citation status

* References for papers published after 2025 are currently being built.

The Korea Spatial Planning Review 2025 KCI Impact Factor : 2.35

Evaluation of the ‘Comprehensive Plan for the Development of Border Areas’ based on the Prediction of the Spatial Structure of the Border Area

ABSTRACT

KEYWORDS

Journal Copyright Policy

Statistics

Tools

Issue List

Citation status

KCI Citation Counts (0)

REFERENCES (26) * References for papers published after 2025 are currently being built.

Search PDF

Citation

* References for papers published after 2025 are currently being built.