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A Contribution Analysis of Housing Prices to Fertility Rates by Birth Order

Jinbaek Park 1

1국토연구원

Accredited

ABSTRACT

This study empirically analyzes the determinants of birth rates by birth order and evaluates the contribution of each determinant. Using panel data from 16 metropolitan and provincial regions in South Korea spanning 2009–2022, the study employs a dynamic panel model and Shapley decomposition for empirical estimation. The regression analysis reveals that the determinants of birth rates vary by birth order. The birth rate of the first child is significantly influenced by housing purchase and rental prices, whereas the marginal effect of housing prices decreases for the birth of second and higher-order children. The Shapley decomposition results indicate that the previous year’s birth rate has the highest contribution across all birth orders, with housing prices exerting the greatest impact on first-child births, though their influence diminishes for subsequent births. Based on these findings, stabilizing housing prices and implementing targeted housing support policies are crucial for increasing first-child births. Additionally, reducing the burden of private education costs through public education reforms and childcare expansion could support higher-order births.

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