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Analysis of the Relationship between Mean Land Surface Temperature and Topographic–Urban Spatial Characteristics in the Coastal Lowlands of Jeju City

SONJUHYUNG 1,  Jeong, Jong Chul 1

1남서울대학교

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ABSTRACT

This study analyzes the relationship between land surface temperature (LST) and topographic and urban-spatial characteristics in the coastal lowlands of Jeju City using Landsat-derived LST data and an XGBoost-SHAP framework. The study area was limited to the Jeju-si Dong area below 300 m elevation, and LST values from seven autumn observation dates between 2015 and 2021 were aggregated into 500 m × 500 m grids. After excluding grids with insufficient valid LST pixels, 487 grids were used for analysis. The mean LST ranged from 11.17 to 18.61°C, with an overall mean of 15.08°C. To address the high negative correlation between urban area ratio and vegetated land-cover ratio, this study compared the original model, a model excluding vegetated land-cover ratio, and a revised model including coastal distance. The final revised model (M2) used mean elevation, urban area ratio, coastal distance, bare land ratio, and water area ratio as input variables. The M2 model showed stable predictive performance, with R²=0.843, RMSE=0.576°C, and MAE=0.418°C for the test data. The SHAP analysis indicated that urban area ratio contributed most to mean LST prediction, followed by mean elevation and coastal distance. Urban area ratio increased predicted LST, whereas mean elevation reduced it. Coastal distance had a lower relative contribution but served as a complementary variable representing the coastal-inland spatial gradient of Jeju City’s coastal lowlands. These findings provide a grid-based interpretation of thermal characteristics in Jeju City’s coastal lowlands and offer basic information for urban thermal environment management and land-use planning.

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