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Spatial Separation between Birth Regions and Child-Rearing Regions: An Analysis of Regional Birth Cohort Size and Migration Events in Early Childhood

Sohyun Mun 1

1서울대학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

This study examines the spatial relationship between regional birth cohort size and migration patterns among children aged 0~5 amid intensifying low fertility in South Korea. It links birth data for 2011~2025 with migration data for children aged 0~5 for 2016~2025. Using the Birth Scale Index (BSI) and Infant Net Migration event Index (NMI), 229 regions are classified into four types. The results show that low birth/net outflow type accounted for the largest share. A clear spatial separation between birth and child-rearing regions was observed in high birth/net outflow regions, including many districts in Seoul, and in low birth/net inflow regions, such as Gwacheon-Si and Muan-Gun. OD analysis reveals that the largest flow occurs from high birth/net outflow to high birth/net inflow regions, while low birth/net inflow areas received children from multiple regional types. This study demonstrates that regional birth scale and migration direction among young children may display various spatial patterns, highlighting the need for population policy to consider both dimensions together.

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* References for papers published after 2025 are currently being built.