@article{ART003156607},
author={Yu-Hyun Kim and Donghyun Kim},
title={A Study on Estimating Heat Vulnerable Areas by Demographic Group based on Population Estimates},
journal={Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment},
issn={1225-7184},
year={2024},
volume={33},
number={6},
pages={277-292}
TY - JOUR
AU - Yu-Hyun Kim
AU - Donghyun Kim
TI - A Study on Estimating Heat Vulnerable Areas by Demographic Group based on Population Estimates
JO - Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
PY - 2024
VL - 33
IS - 6
PB - Korean Society Of Environmental Impact Assessment
SP - 277
EP - 292
SN - 1225-7184
AB - In order to minimize the impact of future heat waves, this study predicts the spatial distribution of heat vulnerable areas by three demographic groups: young population, working-age population, and old population, prior to establishing heat wave adaptation strategies. First, the future population values of each demographic group were estimated through machine learning and explainable AI, and the estimates were interpreted. The population estimates showed that all three demographic groups are expected to continue to decline until 2042. The future heat wave vulnerable areas, derived by overlaying population estimates and future heat wave days by demographic group, were predicted to be mainly inland for all three demographic groups. The spatial distribution of future heat vulnerable areas by demographic group showed that the western part of the country is more vulnerable than the eastern part, and that the heat vulnerable areas for the young population will be located in Seoul, the southern part of the Seoul metropolitan area, and metropolitan areas, while the heat vulnerable areas for the working-age population will be located in Seoul, the southern part of the Seoul metropolitan area, and the Chungcheongbuk-do region. Accurate population estimation analysis is an essential step in proactively and effectively dealing with the effects of future heat waves, and the results of this study can be used as a basis for heat adaptation policies.
KW - Small Area Estimation;Heat Vulnerable Area;XGBoost;SHAP
DO -
UR -
ER -
Yu-Hyun Kim and Donghyun Kim. (2024). A Study on Estimating Heat Vulnerable Areas by Demographic Group based on Population Estimates. Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment, 33(6), 277-292.
Yu-Hyun Kim and Donghyun Kim. 2024, "A Study on Estimating Heat Vulnerable Areas by Demographic Group based on Population Estimates", Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment, vol.33, no.6 pp.277-292.
Yu-Hyun Kim, Donghyun Kim "A Study on Estimating Heat Vulnerable Areas by Demographic Group based on Population Estimates" Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment 33.6 pp.277-292 (2024) : 277.
Yu-Hyun Kim, Donghyun Kim. A Study on Estimating Heat Vulnerable Areas by Demographic Group based on Population Estimates. 2024; 33(6), 277-292.
Yu-Hyun Kim and Donghyun Kim. "A Study on Estimating Heat Vulnerable Areas by Demographic Group based on Population Estimates" Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment 33, no.6 (2024) : 277-292.
Yu-Hyun Kim; Donghyun Kim. A Study on Estimating Heat Vulnerable Areas by Demographic Group based on Population Estimates. Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment, 33(6), 277-292.
Yu-Hyun Kim; Donghyun Kim. A Study on Estimating Heat Vulnerable Areas by Demographic Group based on Population Estimates. Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment. 2024; 33(6) 277-292.
Yu-Hyun Kim, Donghyun Kim. A Study on Estimating Heat Vulnerable Areas by Demographic Group based on Population Estimates. 2024; 33(6), 277-292.
Yu-Hyun Kim and Donghyun Kim. "A Study on Estimating Heat Vulnerable Areas by Demographic Group based on Population Estimates" Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment 33, no.6 (2024) : 277-292.
