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Predicting the Natural Habitat of Carpinus cordata Based on Climate Change Scenarios

  • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
  • Abbr : J EIA
  • 2024, 33(6), pp.319-334
  • Publisher : Korean Society Of Environmental Impact Assessment
  • Research Area : Engineering > Environmental Engineering
  • Received : October 10, 2024
  • Accepted : December 24, 2024
  • Published : December 31, 2024

Chae-Min Jang 1 Kweon Heo 1

1강원대학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

This study predicts the current and future native habitats of Carpinus cordata on the Korean Peninsula and assesses the sensitivity of native habitat changes and vulnerability to climate change scenarios. The MaxEnt model was employed to predict the potential native habitats of Carpinus cordata under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios and analyzed native habitat shrinkage and climate zone shift patterns due to climate change. The study found that major climate variables such as temperature and precipitation had a significant impact on the changes in the native habitat of Carpinus cordata, and in particular, the RCP 8.5 scenario, which emits greenhouse gases according to the current trend, accelerated the reduction in the habitat of Carpinus cordata was accelerated compared to the RCP 4.5 scenario, in which the greenhouse gas reduction policy was partially realized. These results suggest an urgent need to develop conservation strategies for Carpinus cordata in response to climate change, and emphasise the need for a policy response to conserve the native habitats of climate-sensitive species. This study provides an important basis for developing biodiversity conservation and management plans to cope with climate change on the Korean Peninsula.

Citation status

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