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An Empirical Analysis of the Sustainability of Fiscal Deficits in Korea: A Cointegration Test for Consolidated Primary Fiscal Balance and Government Debt

  • Korean Society and Public Administration
  • Abbr : KSPA
  • 2011, 22(2), pp.49-68
  • Publisher : Seoul Association For Public Administration
  • Research Area : Social Science > Public Administration

유금록 1

1군산대학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

This study reviewed previous research on fiscal sustainability, formulated a model for analyzing the sustainability of fiscal deficits, explained estimation methods, and performed unit root and cointegration tests for government debt and consolidated primary fiscal balance in Korea from 1980 through 2009. The empirical results show that while there is a cointegrating relationship between consolidated primary fiscal balance and government debt from 1980 through 2009, which implies that fiscal balance is sustainable, there is not a cointegrating relationship between these two fiscal variables from 1997 through 2009 after the exchange currency and global financial crises, which indicates that fiscal balance is not sustainable.

Citation status

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