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The Economic Impact of the May 18 Democratic Uprising on the Regional Economy: A Synthetic Control Method (SCM) approach

  • Analyses & Alternatives
  • Abbr : A&A
  • 2022, 6(2), pp.155~183
  • DOI : 10.22931/aanda.2022.6.2.005
  • Publisher : Korea Consensus Institute
  • Research Area : Social Science > Social Science in general
  • Received : June 10, 2022
  • Accepted : July 11, 2022
  • Published : July 31, 2022

Deockhyun Ryu 1 Dongkyu Seo 2

1중앙대학교
2한국조세재정연구원

Accredited

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this study is to econometrically analyze the negative impact of the May 18 Democratic Uprising on the Gwangju/Jeonnam regionional economy using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM). The SCM SCM is a methodology similar to the difference-in-difference(DID) method of microeconometrics. It is applied to macroeconomic variables such as country, region, etc. to estimate the causal relationship between specific events and the dependent variable. In this study, as of 1980, local tax revenue data of metropolitan local governments were used as a proxy variable for the economy of the region, and the impact of the May 18 Democratic Uprising on the economy of Gwangju/Jeonnam region was analyzed through various socio-economic indicators. In this study, data were used to analyze from 1971 to 2000, and as a result of empirical analysis, local tax revenues in Gwangju/Jeonnam area were less collected than normal routes up to 17%. In addition, the significance of this analysis was confirmed through in-time placebo effect analysis and in-space placebo effect analysis, which are methods of analyzing the robustness of the control group synthesis method.

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