@article{ART003316393},
author={Wang-Hui},
title={An Analysis of the Factors Behind the Assertive Shift in China’s South China Sea Policy: From Hu Jintao Era to Xi Jinping Era},
journal={military history},
issn={1598-317X},
year={2026},
number={138},
pages={139-173}
TY - JOUR
AU - Wang-Hui
TI - An Analysis of the Factors Behind the Assertive Shift in China’s South China Sea Policy: From Hu Jintao Era to Xi Jinping Era
JO - military history
PY - 2026
VL - null
IS - 138
PB - Military History Institute, MND
SP - 139
EP - 173
SN - 1598-317X
AB - This study examines the causes of the more assertive shift in China’s South China Sea policy during Xi Jinping’s tenure (2012-2022). Using Hu Jintao’s administration(2002-2012) as a contrasting case, it applies Rosenau’s pre-theoretical framework to analyze foreign policy decision-making across four dimensions: individual, governmental, societal, and international system variables. The findings show that while international pressures as well as governmental and societal factors influenced policy decisions in both periods, the assertive turn under Xi Jinping is more convincingly explained by leadership-level factors. Xi’s governance disposition, shaped by his formative experiences and coastal administrative background, provided an important cognitive backdrop for policy interpretation. At the same time, the strategic visions articulated after he assumed office—most notably the pursuit of the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” and the goal of building China into a maritime power— played a decisive role in shaping the direction of policy change. Together, these factors exhibit relatively greater explanatory power than other variables. By highlighting the role of leadership-level strategic interpretation within a multi-level analytical framework, this study extends existing explanations of China’s South China Sea policy.
KW - South China Sea Policy; Rosenau’s Pre-Theoretical Framework;Foreign Policy Determinants;Xi Jinping; Hu Jintao
DO -
UR -
ER -
Wang-Hui. (2026). An Analysis of the Factors Behind the Assertive Shift in China’s South China Sea Policy: From Hu Jintao Era to Xi Jinping Era. military history, 138, 139-173.
Wang-Hui. 2026, "An Analysis of the Factors Behind the Assertive Shift in China’s South China Sea Policy: From Hu Jintao Era to Xi Jinping Era", military history, no.138, pp.139-173.
Wang-Hui "An Analysis of the Factors Behind the Assertive Shift in China’s South China Sea Policy: From Hu Jintao Era to Xi Jinping Era" military history 138 pp.139-173 (2026) : 139.
Wang-Hui. An Analysis of the Factors Behind the Assertive Shift in China’s South China Sea Policy: From Hu Jintao Era to Xi Jinping Era. 2026; 138 : 139-173.
Wang-Hui. "An Analysis of the Factors Behind the Assertive Shift in China’s South China Sea Policy: From Hu Jintao Era to Xi Jinping Era" military history no.138(2026) : 139-173.
Wang-Hui. An Analysis of the Factors Behind the Assertive Shift in China’s South China Sea Policy: From Hu Jintao Era to Xi Jinping Era. military history, 138, 139-173.
Wang-Hui. An Analysis of the Factors Behind the Assertive Shift in China’s South China Sea Policy: From Hu Jintao Era to Xi Jinping Era. military history. 2026; 138 139-173.
Wang-Hui. An Analysis of the Factors Behind the Assertive Shift in China’s South China Sea Policy: From Hu Jintao Era to Xi Jinping Era. 2026; 138 : 139-173.
Wang-Hui. "An Analysis of the Factors Behind the Assertive Shift in China’s South China Sea Policy: From Hu Jintao Era to Xi Jinping Era" military history no.138(2026) : 139-173.
