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Analysis of Scenarios on the Future of U.S.-China Relations: Focusing on the U.S. Think Tanks’ Foresight Reports in the 2010s

  • Journal of Asia-Pacific Studies
  • Abbr : JAPS
  • 2020, 27(2), pp.5-37
  • DOI : 10.18107/japs.2020.27.2.001
  • Publisher : Institute of Global Affairs
  • Research Area : Social Science > Social Science in general
  • Received : May 18, 2020
  • Accepted : June 9, 2020
  • Published : June 30, 2020

Kang Su-Jeong 1

1성균관대학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

As the strategic competition between the U.S. and China has begun, the uncertainty in U.S.-China relations has increased, and various discussions among think tanks have been made regarding the prospects on the future of U.S.-China relations. The scenarios on the future of U.S.-China relationship, presented by think tanks, provide a glimpse into how they perceive the current state, change and future of the U.S.-China relationship. In this regard, this study focuses on exploring the U.S. think tanks’ prospects for U.S.-China relations which reflect the U.S. perception and strategic thinking towards its relations with China. This paper aims to identify major trends and changes in the U.S. perception of its relations with China and to find important clues for the future prospects of U.S.-China relations by analyzing the forecast scenarios of U.S.-China relations presented in the foresight reports published by major think tanks in the U.S. in the 2010s. In addition, based on this analysis, this paper also examines the increasing tendency in U.S.-China relations since the recent COVID-19 pandemic, and discusses the future of U.S.-China relations in the post-COVID-19 era.

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