@article{ART003245353},
author={Chong-Yan Xu and Soyoun Kim and Suyeol Ryu},
title={The impact of China's Population Aging on Inflation using an Unbalanced Dynamic Panel Model: Using the AMG Estimation Method},
journal={Journal of Asia-Pacific Studies},
issn={1225-8539},
year={2025},
volume={32},
number={3},
pages={5-36},
doi={10.18107/japs.2025.32.3.001}
TY - JOUR
AU - Chong-Yan Xu
AU - Soyoun Kim
AU - Suyeol Ryu
TI - The impact of China's Population Aging on Inflation using an Unbalanced Dynamic Panel Model: Using the AMG Estimation Method
JO - Journal of Asia-Pacific Studies
PY - 2025
VL - 32
IS - 3
PB - Institute of Global Affairs
SP - 5
EP - 36
SN - 1225-8539
AB - China's aging population, accelerated by an increase in the elderly population and a decrease in the working-age population, affects economic growth, market supply and demand structure, and industrial structure changes, especially by shrinking the demand base, can curb inflationary pressure.
This study constructed a dynamic panel based on the New Keynes Phillips curve model using unbalanced panel data from 31 Chinese provinces from 1998-2023, and applied the AMG estimation method to analyze the effect of aging on inflation.
As a result of the analysis, it was found that the inflation lag term was estimated to be a negative sign, which has the characteristic of mean regression, and that the proportion of the elderly population and the elderly support ratio, which are aging variables, suppress inflation. In particular, the suppressing effect was stronger in rural areas than in cities. In addition, the output gap, real GDP growth rate per capita, fiscal expenditure, urbanization, and trade openness caused inflation, and real fixed asset investment suppressed it.
Therefore, China needs fiscal and monetary policy, expansion of labor participation for the elderly, and social security system reform to cope with the risk of deflation caused by aging. This study provides implications for price stability and macro-policy establishment in an aging society.
KW - China's Population Aging;Inflation;Cross-sectional Dependence;AMG Estimation Method;New Keynesian Phillips Curve
DO - 10.18107/japs.2025.32.3.001
ER -
Chong-Yan Xu, Soyoun Kim and Suyeol Ryu. (2025). The impact of China's Population Aging on Inflation using an Unbalanced Dynamic Panel Model: Using the AMG Estimation Method. Journal of Asia-Pacific Studies, 32(3), 5-36.
Chong-Yan Xu, Soyoun Kim and Suyeol Ryu. 2025, "The impact of China's Population Aging on Inflation using an Unbalanced Dynamic Panel Model: Using the AMG Estimation Method", Journal of Asia-Pacific Studies, vol.32, no.3 pp.5-36. Available from: doi:10.18107/japs.2025.32.3.001
Chong-Yan Xu, Soyoun Kim, Suyeol Ryu "The impact of China's Population Aging on Inflation using an Unbalanced Dynamic Panel Model: Using the AMG Estimation Method" Journal of Asia-Pacific Studies 32.3 pp.5-36 (2025) : 5.
Chong-Yan Xu, Soyoun Kim, Suyeol Ryu. The impact of China's Population Aging on Inflation using an Unbalanced Dynamic Panel Model: Using the AMG Estimation Method. 2025; 32(3), 5-36. Available from: doi:10.18107/japs.2025.32.3.001
Chong-Yan Xu, Soyoun Kim and Suyeol Ryu. "The impact of China's Population Aging on Inflation using an Unbalanced Dynamic Panel Model: Using the AMG Estimation Method" Journal of Asia-Pacific Studies 32, no.3 (2025) : 5-36.doi: 10.18107/japs.2025.32.3.001
Chong-Yan Xu; Soyoun Kim; Suyeol Ryu. The impact of China's Population Aging on Inflation using an Unbalanced Dynamic Panel Model: Using the AMG Estimation Method. Journal of Asia-Pacific Studies, 32(3), 5-36. doi: 10.18107/japs.2025.32.3.001
Chong-Yan Xu; Soyoun Kim; Suyeol Ryu. The impact of China's Population Aging on Inflation using an Unbalanced Dynamic Panel Model: Using the AMG Estimation Method. Journal of Asia-Pacific Studies. 2025; 32(3) 5-36. doi: 10.18107/japs.2025.32.3.001
Chong-Yan Xu, Soyoun Kim, Suyeol Ryu. The impact of China's Population Aging on Inflation using an Unbalanced Dynamic Panel Model: Using the AMG Estimation Method. 2025; 32(3), 5-36. Available from: doi:10.18107/japs.2025.32.3.001
Chong-Yan Xu, Soyoun Kim and Suyeol Ryu. "The impact of China's Population Aging on Inflation using an Unbalanced Dynamic Panel Model: Using the AMG Estimation Method" Journal of Asia-Pacific Studies 32, no.3 (2025) : 5-36.doi: 10.18107/japs.2025.32.3.001
