Competition in the Disguise of Partnership: Structural Analysis on China-Russia Relations

HyunJun Seo (서현준)

doi:10.18107/japs.2025.32.3.003

Competition in the Disguise of Partnership: Structural Analysis on China-Russia Relations

Journal of Asia-Pacific Studies
Abbr : JAPS
2025, 32(3), pp.71~118
DOI : 10.18107/japs.2025.32.3.003
Publisher : Institute of Global Affairs
Research Area : Social Science > Social Science in general
Received : August 1, 2025
Accepted : September 9, 2025
Published : September 30, 2025

HyunJun Seo ¹

¹연세대학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

This paper examines China-Russia relations as of the mid-2020s. It first reviews the existing literature on China-Russia relations and clarifies their limitations. Next, it explores the conditions that differentiate a “long-term, trustworthy, and strong interstate partnership,” which is indicative of “an enduring alliance,” from an “unstable, temporary, and essentially distrusting partnership,” which represents “a competitive coalition.” As for the case study, it investigates China-Russia relations across three key domains (i.e., historical development, economic connections, and military relations) to determine whether they meet the criteria for an enduring alliance, as often argued in previous research. The following analysis reveals that although the two countries appear to form increasingly closer ties in the face of a common threat (i.e., the U.S), they do not fully satisfy the conditions necessary for a long-term, trustworthy, and strong interstate partnership. Instead, their relationship is largely characterized by instability, temporariness, and fundamental distrust. Consequently, it concludes that contemporary China-Russia relations are better described as “competitive coalition,” rather than as an enduring alliance.

KEYWORDS

China-Russia Relations, Great Power Competition, Historical Dev elopment, Economic Connections, Military Relations

Citation status

* References for papers published after 2025 are currently being built.

[journal] Balcells, L. / 2022 / Do birds of a feather flock together? Rebel constituencies and civil war alliances / International Studies Quarterly 66(1) : 1~15

[book] Barnett, M. N. / 1998 / Dialogues in Arab politics: negotiations in regional order / Columbia University Press

[journal] Barry, C. / 1996 / NATO's combined joint task forces in theory and practice / Survival 38(1) : 81~97

[journal] Beckley, M. / 2017 / The emerging military balance in East Asia: How China's neighbors can check Chinese naval expansion / International Security 42(2) : 78~119

[journal] Belal, K. / 2020 / China-Iran relations: Prospects and complexities / Policy Perspectives 17(2) : 47~66

[book] Bolt, P. J. / 2018 / China, Russia, and twenty-first century global geopolitics / Oxford University Press

[book] Buehler, M. / 2018 / Why alliances fail: Islamist and leftist coalitions in North Africa / Syracuse University Press

[thesis] Carlson, B. G. / 2018 / Seeking Leverage: China-Russia Relations in World Politics, 1991-2016 / Ph. D / Johns Hopkins University

[book] Cesa M. / 2010 / Allies yet rivals: International politics in 18th century Europe / Stanford University Press

[journal] Cha, V. / 2017 / Informal hierarchy in Asia: the origins of the US-Japan alliance / International Relations of the Asia-Pacific 17(1) : 1~34

[journal] Chang-Liao, N. C. / 2023 / The limits of strategic partnerships: Implications for China's role in the Russia-Ukraine war / Contemporary Security Policy 44(2) : 226~247

[journal] Chidley, C. / 2014 / Towards a framework of alignment in international relations / Politikon 41(1) : 141~157

[journal] Christensen T. J. / 1990 / Chain gangs and passed bucks: Predicting alliance patterns in multipolarity / International organization 44(2) : 137~168

[journal] Chun, C. S. / 2000 / Theoretical approaches to alliance: Implications on the ROK-US Alliance / Journal of International and Area Studies 7(2) : 71~88

[journal] Czulda R. / 2025 / Between idealism and pragmatism: Iran's approach towards the Russian aggression against Ukraine in 2022 / Defense & Security Analysis 41(2) : 1~26

[journal] David, S. R. / 1991 / Explaining third world alignment / World politics 43(2) : 233~256

[journal] Delanoe, I. / 2014 / After the Crimean crisis: towards a greater Russian maritime power in the Black Sea / Southeast European and Black Sea Studies 14(3) : 367~382

[journal] Deudney D. / 1993 / The logic of the west / World Policy Journal 10(4) : 17~25

[journal] Duffield, J. S. / 1994 / NATO's Functions after the Cold War / Political Science Quarterly 109(5) : 763~787

[book] Ericson III, E. E. / 1999 / Feeding the German eagle: Soviet economic aid to Nazi Germany, 1933-1941 / Bloomsbury Publishing USA

[journal] Fortescue S. / 2016 / Russia's "turn to the east": a study in policy making / Post-Soviet Affairs 32(5) : 423~454

[journal] Gilli, A. / 2018 / Why China has not caught up yet: military-technological superiority and the limits of imitation, reverse engineering, and cyber espionage / International security 43(3) : 141~189

[book] Groitl, G. / 2023 / Russia, China and the Revisionist Assault on the Western Liberal International Order / Palgrave Macmillan

[journal] Guan, G. / 2022 / Thirty years of China-Russia strategic relations: achievements, characteristics and prospects / China International Strategy Review 4(1) : 21~38

[journal] He K / 2025 / The positive externalities of US-China institutional balancing in the Indo-Pacific / International Affairs 101(1) : 35~52

[book] Hobsbawm, Eric / 1996 / The Age of Extremes: A History of the World, 1914-1991 / Vintage

[journal] Hsiung, C. W. / 2021 / China's technology cooperation with Russia: Geopolitics, economics, and regime security / The Chinese Journal of International Politics 14(3) : 447~479

[journal] Hsu, J. Y. / 2014 / Development of China-Russia Relations (1949-2011): Limits, Opportunities, and Economic Ties / Chinese economy 47(3) : 70~87

[journal] Kaufman, A. A. / 2010 / The "Century of Humiliation," Then and Now: Chinese Perceptions of the International Order / Pacific Focus 25(1) : 1~33

[journal] Kazantsev A. / 2021 / Between Russia and China: Central Asia in Greater Eurasia / Journal of Eurasian Studies 12(1) : 57~71

[journal] Khan, A. M. / 2025 / Navigating the China-Russia Alliance: A New Paradigm in International Relations / Contemporary Journal of Social Science Review 3(1) : 334~344

[journal] Khanna, T. / 1998 / The dynamics of learning alliances: Competition, cooperation, and relative scope / Strategic management journal 19(3) : 193~210

[book] Kissinger, Henry / 2011 / On China / Penguin Press

[journal] Korolev, A. / 2020 / How closely aligned are China and Russia? Measuring strategic cooperation in IR / International Politics 57(5) : 760~789

[journal] Korolev, A. / 2019 / Reluctant allies: System-unit dynamics and China-Russia relations / International Relations 33(1) : 40~66

[journal] Krickovic, A. / 2017 / The symbiotic China-Russia partnership: Cautious riser and desperate challenger / The Chinese Journal of International Politics 10(3) : 299~329

[journal] Kristensen Hans M / 2024 / Russian nuclear weapons, 2024 / Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 80(2) : 118~145

[journal] Kuisong, Y. / 2000 / The Sino-Soviet Border Clash of 1969: From Zhenbao Island to Sino-American Rapprochement / Cold War History 1(1) : 21~52

[journal] Kurylo, B. / 2024 / Redefining alliances: Exploring the emergence of the China-Russia military axis / Comparative Strategy 43(6) : 595~628

[journal] Larin, V. / 2020 / Russia-China Economic Relations in the 21st Century: Unrealized Potential or Predetermined Outcome? / Chinese Journal of International Review 2(1) : 1~26

[journal] Lee S. / 2021 / The US–South Korea alliance: How the patron benefits from the protégé / International Area Studies Review 24(2) : 97~117

[journal] Lopez A. C. / 2011 / States in mind: Evolution, coalitional psychology, and international politics / International Security 36(2) : 48~83

[book] Lubina, M. / 2017 / Russia and China: A political marriage of convenience-stable and successful / Verlag Barbara Budrich

[book] Malashenko, A. / 2013 / The fight for influence: Russia in Central Asia / Brookings Institution Press

[journal] McCalla, R. B. / 1996 / NATO's Persistence after the Cold War / International organization 50(3) : 445~475

[journal] Mearsheimer, J. J. / 2022 / The causes and consequences of the Ukraine war / Horizons: Journal of International Relations and Sustainable Development (21) : 12~27

[journal] Mehta D. / 1996 / The nature and significance of strategic alliance / Vikalpa 21(2) : 15~30

[book] Morgenthau, Hans / 1972 / Politics among nations: The struggle for power and peace / Random House

[book] Mueller, J. E. / 1996 / Retreat from doomsday: The obsolescence of major war / University of Rochester Press

[journal] Muraviev, A. D. / 2014 / Comrades in arms: the military-strategic aspects of China-Russia relations / Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs 1(2) : 163~185

[journal] Muraviev A. D. / 2024 / Russia-China Near Alliance: Implications for India / Journal of Indian Ocean Studies 32(2) : 183~198

[journal] Obo, E. B. / 2006 / Strategic Alliances: the prospect for business growth / Global Journal of Educational Research 5(1) : 17~22

[journal] Popovic, M. / 2018 / Inter-rebel alliances in the shadow of foreign sponsors / International Interactions 44(4) : 749~776

[journal] Richey, M. / 2020 / Buck-passing, chain-ganging and alliances in the multipolar Indo-Asia-Pacific / The International Spectator 55(1) : 1~17

[journal] Saleh, A. / 2024 / China-Iran strategic partnership and the future of US hegemony in the Persian Gulf Region / British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies 51(2) : 377~400

[book] Sayle, T. A. / 2019 / Enduring alliance: a history of NATO and the postwar global order / Cornell University Press

[journal] Schweller, R. L. / 1994 / Bandwagoning for profit: Bringing the revisionist state back in / International security 19(1) : 72~107

[journal] Seo Hyunjun / 2024 / In the Shadow of the Cold War: Structural Analysis on US-Russia Relations / The Korean Journal of International Studies 22(3) : 271~310

[book] Shen Z. / 2015 / Mao and the Sino-Soviet partnership, 1945-1959: A new history / Lexington Books

[book] Taylor, B. D. / 2018 / The code of Putinism / Oxford University Press

[journal] Tingyang, Z. / 2009 / A Political World Philosophy in terms of All-under-heaven (Tian-xia) / Diogenes 56(1) : 5~18

[journal] Turner S. / 2011 / China and Russia after the Russian-Georgian war / Comparative Strategy 30(1) : 50~59

[journal] Vradiy, S. / 2017 / Russia-Taiwan Relations: History and Perspectives / Contemporary Chinese Political Economy and Strategic Relations: An International Journal 3(1) : 213~243

[journal] Walt, S. M. / 1985 / Alliance formation and the balance of world power / International security. 9(4) : 3~43

[journal] Walt, S. M. / 1997 / Why alliances endure or collapse / Survival 39(1) : 156~179

[book] Waltz, K. N. / 2010 / Theory of international politics / Waveland Press

[book] Weitsman, P. A. / 2004 / Dangerous alliances: Proponents of peace, weapons of war / Stanford University Press

[journal] Westcott, S. P. / 2021 / Seizing a window of opportunity? The causes and consequences of the 2020 Sino-Indian border stand-off / Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs 8(1) : 7~32

[journal] Wheeler-Bennett, J. W. / 1946 / Twenty Years of Russo-German Relations: 1919-1939 / Foreign Affairs 25(1) : 23~43

[book] William, R. / 2007 / International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences: Volume 2: Cohabitation-Ethics in Experimentation, Vol. 2 / MacMillan Publishing Company

[journal] Wilson, J. L. / 2002 / Strategic Partners: Russian-Chinese Relations and the July 2001 Friendship Treaty / Problems of Post-Communism 49(3) : 3~13

[book] Yu, L. / 2025 / The Rise of China and the China-Russia Strategic Partnership / Springer Nature Singapore : 123~159

[book] Zagoria, D. S. / 2015 / Sino-Soviet Conflict, 1956-1961 / Princeton University Press

[journal] Zeigler, S. M. / 2016 / Competitive alliances and civil war recurrence / International Studies Quarterly 60(1) : 24~37

[book] Zhao, S. / 2022 / The dragon roars back: transformational leaders and dynamics of Chinese foreign policy / Stanford University Press

[report] Office of the Secretary of Defense / 2024 / Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China / U.S. Department of Defense

[web] / 2024 / China supporting Russia in massive military expansion, US says / https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/12/china-supporting-russia-in-massive-military-expansion-us-says

[web] Bhatt, Anjali V. / 2024 / The BRICS countries' inability to define its identity limits action / https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2024/brics-countries-inability-define-its-identity-limits-action

[web] Blackwill, Robert D / 2024 / No Limits? The China-Russia Relationship and U.S. Foreign Policy / https://www.cfr.org/report/no-limits-china-russia-relationship-and-us-foreign-policy

[web] Chabarovskaya, Natalia / 2025 / Going Steady: China and Russia's Economic Ties Are Deeper than Washington Thinks / https://cepa.org/comprehensive-reports/going-steady-china-and-russias-economic-ties-are-deeper-than-washington-thinks/

[web] Felix K. Chang / 2014 / Friends in Need: Geopolitics of China-Russia Energy Rel ations / https://www.fpri.org/article/2014/05/friends-in-need-geopolitics-of-china-russia-energy-relations/

[web] Coalson Robert / 2022 / 'The FSB Murdered My Father': Lawyers, Family Want Answers After Ailing Russian Scientist Dies In Custody / https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-scientist-treason-cancer-dead-fsb-arrest/31934882.html

[web] Fong, Clara / 2024 / Where the China-Russia Partnership Is He aded in Seven Charts and Maps / https://www.cfr.org/article/where-china-russia-partnership-headed-seven-charts-and-maps

[web] Shabtai Gold / 2022 / China-based AIIB and NDB halt work in Russia as sanctions hit / https://www.devex.com/news/china-based-aiib-and-ndb-halt-workin-russia-as-sanctions-hit-102787

[web] Hamilton, Robert E. / 2025 / Setting the Stage: An Overview of Chinese and Rus sian Interests and Influence in the Indo-Pacific / https://www.fpri.org/article/2025/01/setting-the-stage-an-overview-of-chinese-and-russian-interests-and-influence-in-the-indo-pacific/

[web] Karolina Hird / 2025 / The Strengthening China-Russia Nexus / https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/strengthening-china-russia-nexus

[web] Jacob Judah / 2025 / How We Obtained and Vetted a Russian Intelligence Document / https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/07/world/europe/russia-intelligence-documents-leak-how.html

[web] Jacob Judah / 2025 / Secret Russian Intelligence Document Shows Deep Suspicion of China / https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/07/world/europe/china-russia-spies-documents-putin-war.html

[web] Kim, Patricia M / 2024 / The China-Russia relationship and threats to vital US interests / https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-china-russia-relationship-and-threats-to-vitalus-interests/

[web] Anya Konstantinovsky / 2024 / China-Russia Relations: No vember 2024 / https://www.cfr.org/article/china-russia-relations-november-2024

[web] Kraemer, Richard / 2024 / Taiwan's Ongoing Business Ties with Russia / jstribune.com / https://jstribune.com/kraemer-taiwans-ongoing-business-ties-with-russia/

[web] Macikenaite, Vida / 2025 / What Beijing's Multipolar World Means for Ukraine and Europe / https://chinaobservers.eu/what-beijings-multipolar-worldmeans-for-ukraine-and-europe/

[report] Mazarr M. J. / 2018 / Understanding the emerging era of international competition - Theoretical and Historical Perspectives

[web] Nye Jr, Joseph S. / 2025 / BRICS is hardly a new fulcrum of world politics / https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/brics-is-hardly-a-new-fulcrum-of-world-politics/

[web] Rosen, Phil / 2022 / Russia is offering to discount its oil by as much as 30% for Asian buyers as the G7 pushes its price cap / https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russian-oil-discount-asia-buyers-price-cap-sanctions-china-india-2022-8

[web] Sauer, Pjotr / 2024 / Top Russian physicist jailed for 15 years for 'state treason.' / https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/sep/03/top-russian-physicist-jailed-for-15-years-for-state-treason

[web] Max Seddon / 2024 / Leaked Russian military files reveal criteria for nuclear strike / https://www.ft.com/content/f18e6e1f-5c3d-4554-aee5-50a730b306b7

[web] Anshu Siripurapu / 2024 / The Contentious U.S.-China Trade Relationship / https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/contentious-us-china-trade-relationship

[web] Soldatov, Andrei / 2024 / The Slow Strangulation of Russia Sanctions / https://cepa.org/article/the-slow-strangulation-of-russiasanctions/

[web] Sonko, Alona / 2024 / Leaked Russian military files reveal Moscow rehearses tac tical nuclear weapons response to Chinese invasion / https://english.nv.ua/nation/cache-consists-of-29-secret-russian-military-files-drawn-up-between-2008-and-2014-50396717.html

[web] Stent, A. / 2020 / Russia and China: Axis of revisionists / https://www.brookings.edu/articles/russia-and-china-axis-of-revisionists/

[web] Trenin, Dmitri / 2012 / True Partners? How Russia and China See Each Other / https://www.cer.eu/publications/archive/report/2012/true-partners-how-russia-and-china-see-each-other

[web] Umarov, Temur / 2024 / The Shanghai Cooperation Organization Is Ineffective and Irrelevant. Carnegie Politika / Carnegie Politika / https://carnegieendowment.org/russiaeurasia/politika/2024/07/sco-summit-china-russia?lang=en

KJCKorea
Journal Central

Journal of Asia-Pacific Studies 2025 KCI Impact Factor : 0.63

Competition in the Disguise of Partnership: Structural Analysis on China-Russia Relations

ABSTRACT

KEYWORDS

Citation status

* References for papers published after 2025 are currently being built.

Journal of Asia-Pacific Studies 2025 KCI Impact Factor : 0.63

Competition in the Disguise of Partnership: Structural Analysis on China-Russia Relations

ABSTRACT

KEYWORDS

Statistics

Tools

Issue List

Citation status

KCI Citation Counts (1)

REFERENCES (103) * References for papers published after 2025 are currently being built.

Search PDF

Citation

* References for papers published after 2025 are currently being built.