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Why Do Apartment Housing Policies Fail in Korea? Jeonse-Driven Leverage and Policy Ineffectiveness

  • Journal of Asia-Pacific Studies
  • Abbr : JAPS
  • 2026, 33(2), pp.185~216
  • DOI : 10.18107/japs.2026.33.2.006
  • Publisher : Institute of Global Affairs
  • Research Area : Social Science > Social Science in general
  • Received : May 11, 2026
  • Accepted : June 2, 2026
  • Published : June 30, 2026

Bae Se Young 1

1건양대학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

This study investigates howjeonse-based leverage influences apartment prices andcontributestotheineffectivenessofhousingpoliciesinSouthKorea.Employing aNonlinearAutoregressiveDistributedLag(NARDL)modelandtheOaxaca–RIF decomposition within a control-function framework, the analysis uses monthly data for three regional groups: (i) the Seoul area, (ii) the Seoul metropolitan area, and (iii) the five other major metropolitan cities, covering the period from January 2012 to December 2025. The empirical results show that apartment pricedynamicsdiffersubstantiallyacrossregions.Jeonsedeposits,interestrates, CPI,andsupply-sidevariablesexertheterogeneouslong-runeffects.Thefindings also suggest that common explanatory variables become less effective outside Seoul, providing evidence of policy ineffectiveness in Korea’s real estate market. Therefore, this paper suggests that the government refrain from relying on uniform, short-term demand-suppressing policies, ineffective supply regulations, andtaxpoliciesthatdiscouragehomeownersfromsellingtheirproperties.Instead, housing policies require more long-term oriented and region-specific designs that explicitly account for jeonse-based leverage.

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