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A Spatial Statistical Approach to the Estimation of School-age Net-migration

  • Journal of the Korean Cartographic Association
  • Abbr : JKCA
  • 2018, 18(3), pp.77-90
  • DOI : 10.16879/jkca.2018.18.3.077
  • Publisher : The Korean Cartographic Association
  • Research Area : Social Science > Geography > Geography in general > Cartography
  • Published : December 31, 2018

Jihee Park 1

1서울대학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

The school-age population is decreasing due to the declining birth-rate, but the problem of oversized schools and overcrowded classes still exists. This is caused by the difficulty in predicting the number of students, and is fundamentally due to the uncertainty of migration of school-age population. This makes it difficult to plan establishment or relocation of schools. It should be performed to analyze the trend of net migration of school-age population, in order to predict the number of future students. So this study analyzed the migration trend of students by region over the last 16 years using national migration data, and estimated net migration of 11-year-old population based on Kriging methods. As a result, the net migration of school-age population decreased with age. The result of Kriging shows the net migration of 11-year-old population is high in Seoul, Daegu, Gyeonggi, and Incheon etc. In addition it draws the trend of net migration to new development areas such as Song-do, as well as famous areas for education fever such as Gangnam-gu in Seoul and Suseong-gu in Daegu. The long-term nationwide trend in the migration of school-age population is identified in this study, which can be contributed to make a national education plan.

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