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Estimating the Rate of Motor Insurance Premium by Double Generalized Linear Model

  • Journal of Insurance and Finance
  • 2008, 19(3), pp.37-57
  • Publisher : Korea Insurance Research Institute
  • Research Area : Social Science > Business Management

Choi, Woo Suk 1 Sang-Il Han 2

1성공회대학교
2한국기술교육대학교

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ABSTRACT

This study estimates the rate of motor insurance premium by using Double Generalized Linear Model(DGLM) under Tweedie’s compound Poisson loss function. Our model used can improve accuracy of estimating fair motor insurance premium by modeling dispersion of the insurance claims as well as their mean. We empirically estimate the rates of premium by using third party motor insurance data for Korea and Australia. The results provide some covariates which explain risk factors simultaneously affect same or opposite direction to the frequency and size of claims. This implies that the DGLM can improve the precision of estimates for car insurance premium rather than assuming constant dispersion. We also observe that a meaningful difference between risk factors of premium in the extent of maximum deviation within the category. The kind of vehicle body displays the largest deviation in discounting(or raising) premium across the risk factors used. The empirical results also shows that the driver’s area of residence is also important risk factor as good as the driver’s age. From our empirical results, a system which discriminates insurance premium by driver’s area of residence could not cause serious polarization problem widening premium gaps between metropolitan areas and provinces.

Citation status

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