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An Estimation of the Number of Children Left by Traffic Accident Victims with Stochastic Model

  • Journal of Insurance and Finance
  • 2012, 23(2), pp.79-110
  • Publisher : Korea Insurance Research Institute
  • Research Area : Social Science > Business Management

조재린 1 김해식 1 하형태 2

1보험연구원
2가천대학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

Traffic accidents pose problems in parenting victim's children left by the victims. Specifically, victim‘s young children under the age of 18 suffer from decreased income and eventually fall into a vicious circle of poverty due to the death or loss of earning capacity of their breadwinners. It may also increase the social risk such as increasing crime. However, the exact number of victim's children is hard to come by. Even the estimated number acquired by conventional method is at best inaccurate. The inaccuracy of the estimates from previous studies is because they do not reflect the demographic changes yet apply too simple assumptions. In this paper, we suggest more accurate approach applying a stochastic model reflecting changing patterns of birth and traffic fatalities and victim's gender and age. As a result from new estimation, we find that there are 33,957 children left by the victims of traffic accidents at the end of 2009. This result is smaller than that from the previous research. The difference is due to decreasing birthrate and increasing victim's age. However, it is found that 87 percent of victim's children are from the traffic accident in which their father are involved. Therefore, greater economic impacts to the households are expected as the main source of the income is provided by the males in Korea.

Citation status

* References for papers published after 2022 are currently being built.

This paper was written with support from the National Research Foundation of Korea.