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Application of Prediction Models for Real Estate Development in North Seoul, Korea

Chang-Deok Kang 1

1서울시립대학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

This paper aims to apply the prediction models for real estate development in North Seoul from 2001 to 2007. After reviewing related literature and gaining related data in 2001 and 2007, the multinomial logit models for this analysis identifies the effects of socioeconomic attributes, land price and land use regulation, transportation and locational attributes, and land use mix on the change of real estate development in North Seoul. This study also reveals the probability of each real estate development from the multinomial logit models and discusses the results. This study confirms that the rise of employment density, land price, and transportation facilities encourage the development of raw lands. Further, single family housing near transportation network tends to be converted to condominium, commercial and retails, and mixed-use due to the increase of employment density and proximity to transportation facilities. Finally, the prediction models in this study would be applied to forecast urban growth, climate change, and energy and water consumption in Korea.

Citation status

* References for papers published after 2022 are currently being built.