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House Price and Macro-Economy in Korea: Structural VECM Analysis

Heegab Choi 1

1아주대학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

We identifies the dynamic relations between house price and macroconomic variables based on a vector error-correction model of a small open economy developed by Garratt et al.(2006). The dynamics of the short run are constrained only by adjustment to the long run equilibrium within a structural vector error-correction model and the long run equilibrium relation is derived from an dynamic optimization model. Using macroeconomic data over the period 1999 Q1~2013 Q1 in the Korean economy, we identify the long-run structure of the Korean economy and study the dynamic interrelations using the generalized impulse response functions. A long-run positive relation among house price, interest rate and output is identified significantly. Usual short-run relation among several macroeconomic variables and house price were able to be confirmed. However, the variance decomposition of forecast errors signified dominant influence of foreign variables on house price fluctuations.

Citation status

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