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The Effect of Summer Weather Conditions on Tourist Visits: Case Study of Gangneung City in South Korea

Kim Geon-Hu 1 Chul Sohn 2

1국립기상과학원
2강릉원주대학교

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ABSTRACT

This study estimates eight types of regression models using number of visitors based on mobile phone data and the number of searches for tourist destinations from car navigation systems as the dependent variables, and four types of daily weather conditions as the independent variables. The model estimation results suggest two consistent implications regarding the correlation between the number of tourists visiting Gangneung and weather conditions in the area. First, the number of tourists increases when the daily high temperature rises. The number of tourists reaches its peak when the daily high temperature is between 30 to 33 degrees Celsius. The number of tourists gradually decreases as the daily high temperature exceeds 33 degrees Celsius, and steeply decreases as the temperature exceeds 35 degrees Celsius. Also, a statistically significant decrease in the number of tourists occurs when daily precipitation is greater than 25 millimeters. This result is based on the analysis of the circumstances during the summer of 2018, but can be interpreted in relation to the RCP scenarios in the region. The RCP scenarios for the region predicts that by year 2100 the average temperature will increase along with the number of summer days and extreme heat days. When the results of the regression analysis and the RCP scenarios are taken together, the number of tourists during the summer is expected to increase as the climate changes, but increasing days of extreme heat may offset this effect, which suggests the necessity of policy measures to promote tourism in response to excessive heat.

Citation status

* References for papers published after 2023 are currently being built.