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Analysis of the Causes of Demand Forecasting Errors in Public Investment Projects: A Focus on the Impact of Regional Characteristics.

Dongho Jeong 1,  Kim, Euijune 2

1국토연구원
2서울대학교

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ABSTRACT

This study examines the impact of regional characteristics on demand forecasting errors for public investment projects, which have been observed across countries and regions. Using post-evaluation construction data linked with Si-gun level attributes, the research identifies increased forecasting errors in regions with a significant elderly population and low density, notably in transportation projects. The impact is more pronounced in non-metropolitan areas and no significant correlation is found in projects unrelated to roads and railways. These outcomes suggest a tendency to overestimate demand in underdeveloped regions during the planning phase, emphasizing the importance of securing economic feasibility, particularly in transportation projects. To mitigate forecasting failures, it is essential to decrease the impact of economic feasibility by diversifying policy considerations and the effects on balanced regional development. Moreover, it is crucial to develop demand forecasting error information for similar projects and leverage such information in subsequent projects. This approach enhances the utilization of information and fosters accountability among the experts involved in the planning and execution of future projects

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* References for papers published after 2023 are currently being built.

This paper was written with support from the National Research Foundation of Korea.
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