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Local Adaptation Plan to Climate Change Impact in Seoul: Focused on Heat Wave Effects

  • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
  • Abbr : J EIA
  • 2012, 21(1), pp.71-80
  • Publisher : Korean Society Of Environmental Impact Assessment
  • Research Area : Engineering > Environmental Engineering

Kim, Eunyoung 1 Jeon, Sung-Woo 1 Lee, Jung-Won 1 Park, Yong-Ha 1 이동근 2

1한국환경정책·평가연구원
2서울대학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

Against the backdrop of the clear impact of climate change, it has become essential to analyze the influence of climate change and relevant vulnerabilities. This research involved evaluating the impact of heat waves in Seoul, from among many local autonomous bodies that are responsible for implementing measures on adapting to climate change. To carry out the evaluation, the A1B scenario was used to forecast future temperature levels. Future climate scenario results were downscaled to 1km×1km to result in the incorporation of regional characteristics. In assessing the influence of heat waves on people-especially the excess mortality-we analyzed critical temperature levels that affect excess mortality and came up with the excess mortality. Results of this evaluation on the impact of climate change and vulnerabilities indicate that the number of days on which the daily average temperature reaches 28.1˚C-the critical temperature for excess mortality-in Seoul will sharply increase in the 2050s and 2090s. The highest level of impact will be in the month of August. The most affected areas in the summer will be Songpa-gu, Gangnam-gu, and Yeongdeungpo-gu. These areas have a high concentration of residences which means that heat island effects are one of the reasons for the high level of impact. The excess mortality from heat waves is expected to be at least five times the current figure in 2090. Adaptation plan needs to be made on drawing up long-term adaptation measures as well as implementing short-term measures to minimize or adapt the impact of climate change.

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