@article{ART001924369},
author={Park Hyun Chul and Lee， Jung Hwan and Lee Gwan Gye},
title={Predicting the suitable habitat of the Pinus pumila under climate change},
journal={Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment},
issn={1225-7184},
year={2014},
volume={23},
number={5},
pages={379-392},
doi={10.14249/eia.2014.23.5.379}
TY - JOUR
AU - Park Hyun Chul
AU - Lee， Jung Hwan
AU - Lee Gwan Gye
TI - Predicting the suitable habitat of the Pinus pumila under climate change
JO - Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
PY - 2014
VL - 23
IS - 5
PB - Korean Society Of Environmental Impact Assessment
SP - 379
EP - 392
SN - 1225-7184
AB - This study was performed to predict the future climate envelope of Pinus pumila, asubalpine plant and a Climate-sensitive Biological Indicator Species (CBIS) of Korea. P. pumila isdistributed at Mt. seorak in South Korea. Suitable habitat were predicted under two alternativeRCPscenarios (IPCC AR5). The SDM used for future prediction was a Maxent model, and the totalnumber of environmental variables for Maxent was 8. It was found that the distribution range of P. pumila in the South Korean was 38° 7’ 8”N~38° 7’ 14”N and 128° 28’ 2”E~128° 27’ 38”E and1,586m~1,688m in altitude. The variables that contribute the most to define the climate envelopeare altitude. Climate envelope simulation accuracy was evaluated using the ROC’s AUC. The P. pumila model’s 5-cv AUC was found to be 0.99966. which showed that model accuracy was very high. Under both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the climate envelope for P. pumila is predicted to decrease in South Korea. According to the results of the maxent model has been applied in the current climate, suitable habitat is 790.78㎢. The suitable habitats, are distributed in the region of over 1,400m . Further, in comparison with the suitable habitat of applying RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 suitable habitat current, reduction of area RCP8.5 was greater than RCP4.5. Thus, climate change will affect the distribution of P. pumila. Therefore, governmental measures to conserve this species will be necessary. Additionally, for CBIS vulnerability analysis and studies using sampling techniques to monitor areas based on the outcomes of this study, future study designs shouldincorporate the use of climatic predictions derived from multiple GCMs, especially GCMs that were not the one used in this study. Furthermore, if environmental variables directly relevant to CBIS distribution other than climate variables, such as the Bioclim parameters, are ever identified, more accurate prediction than in this study will be possible.
KW - Climate-sensitive Biological Indicator Species;Predicted Suitable habitat;Maxent;RCPs
DO - 10.14249/eia.2014.23.5.379
ER -
Park Hyun Chul, Lee， Jung Hwan and Lee Gwan Gye. (2014). Predicting the suitable habitat of the Pinus pumila under climate change. Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment, 23(5), 379-392.
Park Hyun Chul, Lee， Jung Hwan and Lee Gwan Gye. 2014, "Predicting the suitable habitat of the Pinus pumila under climate change", Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment, vol.23, no.5 pp.379-392. Available from: doi:10.14249/eia.2014.23.5.379
Park Hyun Chul, Lee， Jung Hwan, Lee Gwan Gye "Predicting the suitable habitat of the Pinus pumila under climate change" Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment 23.5 pp.379-392 (2014) : 379.
Park Hyun Chul, Lee， Jung Hwan, Lee Gwan Gye. Predicting the suitable habitat of the Pinus pumila under climate change. 2014; 23(5), 379-392. Available from: doi:10.14249/eia.2014.23.5.379
Park Hyun Chul, Lee， Jung Hwan and Lee Gwan Gye. "Predicting the suitable habitat of the Pinus pumila under climate change" Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment 23, no.5 (2014) : 379-392.doi: 10.14249/eia.2014.23.5.379
Park Hyun Chul; Lee， Jung Hwan; Lee Gwan Gye. Predicting the suitable habitat of the Pinus pumila under climate change. Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment, 23(5), 379-392. doi: 10.14249/eia.2014.23.5.379
Park Hyun Chul; Lee， Jung Hwan; Lee Gwan Gye. Predicting the suitable habitat of the Pinus pumila under climate change. Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment. 2014; 23(5) 379-392. doi: 10.14249/eia.2014.23.5.379
Park Hyun Chul, Lee， Jung Hwan, Lee Gwan Gye. Predicting the suitable habitat of the Pinus pumila under climate change. 2014; 23(5), 379-392. Available from: doi:10.14249/eia.2014.23.5.379
Park Hyun Chul, Lee， Jung Hwan and Lee Gwan Gye. "Predicting the suitable habitat of the Pinus pumila under climate change" Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment 23, no.5 (2014) : 379-392.doi: 10.14249/eia.2014.23.5.379
