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Effects of Natural Hazard Risk on Residential Mobility and Safe-Area Choice: A Push-Pull Framewor

  • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
  • Abbr : J EIA
  • 2025, 34(6), pp.475~487
  • Publisher : Korean Society Of Environmental Impact Assessment
  • Research Area : Engineering > Environmental Engineering
  • Received : November 16, 2025
  • Accepted : December 8, 2025
  • Published : December 30, 2025

LEE DALBYUL ORD ID 1

1동의대학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

This study examines how natural disasterrisk shapes households’ intentions to move andtheir preferences for safer destinations, drawing on the Push-Pull migration framework. Usingmicrodata from the 2023 Korean Housing Survey combined with five-year (2018-2022) district-leveldisaster loss statistics, we apply a bivariate probit model to account for the structural dependencebetween moving intention and destination choice. The results show that disaster risk operates as astrong push factorthat increases the likelihood of intending to move, while simultaneously functioningas a pull factorthat strengthens preferences for safer areas among households with moving intentions. Interaction analyses reveal that income and age modify these push-pull effects: higher-incomehouseholds respond more sensitively to hazard exposure, whereas low-income and elderly households exhibit limited responsiveness due to mobility constraints. These findings highlight that disaster risknot only triggers mobility but also generates unequal mobility patterns by constraining vulnerablegroups. This study contributes to the literature by empirically clarifying the mechanisms throughwhich disaster risk shapes both mobility intentions and spatial choices. Policy implications includetargeted support for disaster-vulnerable households, strengthened risk-reduction measures in highhazardareas, and improved accessibility of local hazard information.

Citation status

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