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@article{ART003399642},
author={Yukyeong Jang and oh Jong-Min and I Song Choi},
title={Interpretable Water-Quality Prediction of Paldang Lake Using Graph WaveNet and SHAP for Identifying Priority Nonpoint Source Areas under Rainfall},
journal={Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment},
issn={1225-7184},
year={2026},
volume={35},
number={5},
pages={362-378}

TY - JOUR
AU - Yukyeong Jang
AU - oh Jong-Min
AU - I Song Choi
TI - Interpretable Water-Quality Prediction of Paldang Lake Using Graph WaveNet and SHAP for Identifying Priority Nonpoint Source Areas under Rainfall
JO - Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
PY - 2026
VL - 35
IS - 5
PB - Korean Society Of Environmental Impact Assessment
SP - 362
EP - 378
SN - 1225-7184
AB - This study forecasts water quality at Paldang Lake and interprets the basis of its predictions to identify priority nonpoint source (NPS) areas in the watershed. Because rainfall-driven NPS pollution originates from widely dispersed sources, evidence is needed to allocate limited management resources. To this end, 63 monitoring stations across the Namhan River, Bukhan River, and Gyeongan Stream were represented as graph nodes, and Graph WaveNet was used to forecast BOD, COD, T-N, and T-P at the Paldang Lake station from 1 to 10 days ahead. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) was then applied to quantify variable- and station-wise contributions, which were compared according to whether rainfall occurred. For 1-day-ahead forecasts, the explanatory power (R²) was at least 0.89 for all variables (0.94 for T-N), equal to or higher than the LSTM, TCN, and Transformer baselines, and T-N maintained an R² of 0.37 even at the 10-day horizon. Conditional SHAP analysis showed that nutrient contributions from the remote Bokha Stream system in Icheon increased markedly under rainfall; for T-P, rainfall contributions exceeded dry-condition contributions in all 250 training runs, indicating a rainfall-sensitive NPS source. The same tendency appeared in the Gyeongan Stream watershed. These results can serve as a basis for prioritizing watershed-scale NPS reduction projects.
KW - Graph WaveNet;Explainable Artificial Intelligence;Nonpoint Source Pollution;Paldang Lake;Water Quality Forecasting
DO -
UR -
ER -

Yukyeong Jang, oh Jong-Min and I Song Choi. (2026). Interpretable Water-Quality Prediction of Paldang Lake Using Graph WaveNet and SHAP for Identifying Priority Nonpoint Source Areas under Rainfall. Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment, 35(5), 362-378.

Yukyeong Jang, oh Jong-Min and I Song Choi. 2026, "Interpretable Water-Quality Prediction of Paldang Lake Using Graph WaveNet and SHAP for Identifying Priority Nonpoint Source Areas under Rainfall", Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment, vol.35, no.5 pp.362-378.

Yukyeong Jang, oh Jong-Min, I Song Choi "Interpretable Water-Quality Prediction of Paldang Lake Using Graph WaveNet and SHAP for Identifying Priority Nonpoint Source Areas under Rainfall" Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment 35.5 pp.362-378 (2026) : 362.

Yukyeong Jang, oh Jong-Min, I Song Choi. Interpretable Water-Quality Prediction of Paldang Lake Using Graph WaveNet and SHAP for Identifying Priority Nonpoint Source Areas under Rainfall. 2026; 35(5), 362-378.

Yukyeong Jang, oh Jong-Min and I Song Choi. "Interpretable Water-Quality Prediction of Paldang Lake Using Graph WaveNet and SHAP for Identifying Priority Nonpoint Source Areas under Rainfall" Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment 35, no.5 (2026) : 362-378.

Yukyeong Jang; oh Jong-Min; I Song Choi. Interpretable Water-Quality Prediction of Paldang Lake Using Graph WaveNet and SHAP for Identifying Priority Nonpoint Source Areas under Rainfall. Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment, 35(5), 362-378.

Yukyeong Jang; oh Jong-Min; I Song Choi. Interpretable Water-Quality Prediction of Paldang Lake Using Graph WaveNet and SHAP for Identifying Priority Nonpoint Source Areas under Rainfall. Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment. 2026; 35(5) 362-378.

Yukyeong Jang, oh Jong-Min, I Song Choi. Interpretable Water-Quality Prediction of Paldang Lake Using Graph WaveNet and SHAP for Identifying Priority Nonpoint Source Areas under Rainfall. 2026; 35(5), 362-378.

Yukyeong Jang, oh Jong-Min and I Song Choi. "Interpretable Water-Quality Prediction of Paldang Lake Using Graph WaveNet and SHAP for Identifying Priority Nonpoint Source Areas under Rainfall" Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment 35, no.5 (2026) : 362-378.