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Urban Growth Prediction Using Zoning District and Logistic Regression Analysis

  • Journal of the Association of Korean Geographers
  • Abbr : JAKG
  • 2019, 8(3), pp.517-527
  • DOI : 10.25202/JAKG.8.3.12
  • Publisher : Association of Korean Geographers
  • Research Area : Social Science > Geography
  • Received : August 3, 2019
  • Accepted : December 5, 2019
  • Published : December 31, 2019

Geunhan Kim 1 Gilsang Lee 1 Kim, Oh Seok 1 Hee-Sun Choi 1

1한국환경정책·평가연구원

Accredited

ABSTRACT

Sustainable conservation and use of national lands requires anticipating the expansion of urban areas and establishing national environmental plans accordingly. As such, this study compared the use district for 2006 and 2018 to predict the expansion of urban areas. It sets the areas changed to urban districts as dependable variables and the factors related to the changes of the urban districts as independent variables and then performed the logistic regression analysis. It derived a regression equation from the logistic regress analysis and applied the current data in 2018 to the derived regression equation to predict the urban growth in 2030. Since urban areas accounted for 4.0% of the total land in Korea as of 2018, it designated the top 4.0% of the urban growth prediction map derived from the analysis as urban districts. It then excluded the existing urban district districts in 2018 from the top 4.0% of the urban growth prediction map. As a result, it predicted that about 1% of the national lands, or 1,087 km2, would be changed to urban districts by 2030. The derived urban growth prediction map would be a good reference for national land plans and environmental plans related to the use and preservation of national lands, and various plans based on the urban growth prediction would contribute to sustainable use and management of national lands.

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