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A Comparative Study of Stock & Cryptocurrency Market Prediction Using Internet Search Volume

  • Asset Management Review
  • Abbr : AMR
  • 2021, 9(2), pp.41~61
  • DOI : 10.23007/amr.2022.9.2.41
  • Publisher : Institute of Management Research, SungKyunKwan University
  • Research Area : Social Science > Business Management > Finance
  • Received : September 29, 2021
  • Accepted : December 5, 2021
  • Published : December 31, 2021

Seyoon Lee 1 JunGi Park 1

1프라이드랩

Accredited

ABSTRACT

Investor sentiment and behavior of market participants in the stock market and cryptocurrency market are expected to be related to their search behavior. In this study, the effectiveness was verified by extracting keywords for search terms that precede the market price and applying them to time series analysis and hypothetical investment models. To this end, high-frequency keywords were extracted from reports related to the stock and cryptocurrency market, and keywords with high correlation were selected through time series analysis between search volume and asset market index. Subsequently, the rate of return was verified by applying it to a hypothetical investment model based on the search volume of the selected keywords. As a result of the analysis, there was a significant difference in profitability when keywords were extracted from directly related corpus to each asset market compared to others. In the case of the stock market, compared to the buy-and-hold model, the search volume-based investment model could expect a high return on investment. On the contrary, in the cryptocurrency market, it was difficult to regard the search volume-based investment model as an investment strategy superior to the buy-and-hold model.

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