Predicting Disaster Vulnerability in Gangwon Province Using the Disaster Risk Index Based on RCP 8.5 Climate Change Scenarios (RCP 8.5 기후변화시나리오 기반의 재해위험지수를 이용한 강원지역의 재해취약성 전망)

Dae Ju Hwang (황대주); Suk Ho Lee (이석호); 김문모; Kim Byung Sik (김병식)

Predicting Disaster Vulnerability in Gangwon Province Using the Disaster Risk Index Based on RCP 8.5 Climate Change Scenarios

Crisisonomy
Abbr : KRCEM
2016, 12(11), pp.85-97
Publisher : Crisis and Emergency Management: Theory and Praxis
Research Area : Social Science > Public Policy > Public Policy in general

Dae Ju Hwang ¹, Suk Ho Lee ², 김문모 ³, Kim Byung Sik ²

¹삼척시청
²강원대학교
³신구대학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

There is a growing concern over climate change all over the world, particularly due to the impact of extraordinary climate. The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) predicted that the annual average temperature of the earth would increase by 2.3°C in 2050 and by 4.8°C in 2100. It was also predicted that the annual average temperature in Korea would increase by 3.2°C in 2050 and by 6°C in 2100. This study aims to find out an effective measure against climate change that recently emerged as the global issue, through a disaster vulnerability analysis for flood, drought, intense heat, and heavy snow. The disaster vulnerability index was calculated separately for the present (2000) and the future (2020 and 2050). The results revealed that Yeongdong region and Wonju city were the most vulnerable in 2000. In addition, Sokcho, Gangneung, and Chuncheon cities were predicted to be the most vulnerable in 2020 and the central region of Gangwon would be the most vulnerable in 2050.

KEYWORDS

cimate change, flood, drought, intense heat, heavy snow, disaster risk analysis

Citation status

* References for papers published after 2023 are currently being built.

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