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The Iraq War and the Future of War: The Implication of Iraq War on Future International Relations

In Hyo Seol 1

1국방연구원

Accredited

ABSTRACT

This study analyzes the lessons and implications of Iraq War by the framework which divides the concept of 'the war of the future' meaning the mode of war conditioned by surrounding future political situations, and the concept of 'the future warfare' implying the simple aspect of warfare, aspects of fighting itself which reflects on the innovation of measure of warfare. Moreover the paper anticipates 'the future warfare and future war' by using the same framework and related international relations theories. The failure of U.S. intervention in Iraq War originated in preparing for war based on the wrong future war image. The U.S. RMA, 'Revolution of Military Affairs', which is a defense reform project after the demise of Cold War, successfully anticipated the future warfare, but it failed to prepare the country for the war of the future. Under the unipolarity formed during the post Cold War era, U.S. should be prepared for both the asymmetric warfare and guerrilla warfare because there has been a huge gap of national power between U.S. and other states, which lead into that the mode of war became a typical asymmetric warfare and guerrilla warfare. The war of the future after the Iraq War should be anticipated based on the fact that the relative decline of U.S. power and rise of China was happened as the result of Iraq War, so the bipolarity has been come again. Under this bipolar circumstances, first virtual military conflict, which means there will be no real war with the existence of mutual nuclear deterrence and competition of military buildups between U.S. and China, will be central issue, and the limited war between two super powers and regional small powers will be possible in terms of future war scenarios. Especially the competition between U.S. and China will be shaped by the result of the second stage of RMA, the result of diffusion of RMA which was first started by U.S.

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