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Rising House Price and Support for the Incumbent Party: An Analysis of 2006-2018 Korean Local Elections

  • The Journal of Northeast Asia Research
  • Abbr : NEA
  • 2020, 35(1), pp.305-338
  • DOI : 10.18013/jnar.2020.35.1.010
  • Publisher : The Institute for Northeast Asia Research
  • Research Area : Social Science > Political Science > International Politics > International Relations / Cooperation
  • Received : June 2, 2020
  • Accepted : August 10, 2020
  • Published : August 31, 2020

Kim Ji Hye 1 KWON, HYEOK YONG 1

1고려대학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

This paper explores the effects of house price changes on support for the incumbent party in local elections in South Korea. House price has dramatically increased during the 2003-2018 period. We examine patterns of retrospective economic voting induced by housing price changes under both liberal and conservative governments. We analyze party-ballot outcomes for provincial legislature in four local elections in 2006-2018. We find no discernible effects of housing price changes on support for the conservative incumbent party, but sizeable negative effects on support for the liberal incumbent party, especially in localities with low rates of home ownership. Our finding reveals an asymmetric reward-punishment voting behavior under different government partisanship.

Citation status

* References for papers published after 2023 are currently being built.

This paper was written with support from the National Research Foundation of Korea.