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The Paradox of Sanctions for Democracy: Democracy-Promoting Economic Sanctions and Political and Civil Liberties in Authoritarian States in the Asia-Pacific

  • Journal of Asia-Pacific Studies
  • Abbr : JAPS
  • 2026, 33(3), pp.147~180
  • DOI : 10.18107/japs.2026.33.3.005
  • Publisher : Institute of Global Affairs
  • Research Area : Social Science > Social Science in general
  • Received : August 12, 2026
  • Accepted : August 24, 2026
  • Published : September 30, 2026

Yena Shim 1

1국립외교원 외교안보연구소

Accredited

ABSTRACT

This study examines the relationship between democracy-promoting economic sanctions and political and civil liberties in authoritarian states in the Asia-Pacific region. Although such sanctions are explicitly intended to promote democratic change, authoritarian governments facing external pressure may respond by strengthening political control over opposition groups and civil society. To examine this possibility, the study constructs a country-year panel dataset covering 28 authoritarian states in the Asia-Pacific from 1990 to 2010 and applies two-way fixed-effects models with country and year fixed effects. The main dependent variable is V-Dem’s Political Civil Liberties Index, while Electoral Democracy and Liberal Democracy indices are used as alternative measures. The analysis also distinguishes democracy-promoting economic sanctions from other economic sanctions that do not have democracy promotion as their stated objective and additionally considers domestic armed conflict. The results show that political and civil liberties were lower during periods in which democracy-promoting economic sanctions were in effect, and this negative relationship remained after other economic sanctions were taken into account. The overall pattern was also maintained when domestic armed conflict was considered, when alternative measures of democracy were used, and when individual sanctioned countries or countries under sanctions throughout the entire study period were excluded. Additional analyses incorporating lagged GDP per capita growth and official development assistance also produced results in the same direction. These findings suggest that the democratic purpose of sanctions should be distinguished from the domestic political conditions observed while sanctions are actually in effect, highlighting a potential paradox between democracy promotion as a stated policy objective and the level of political and civil liberties during sanction periods.

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