@article{ART003176574},
author={Jungwoo Bae and Byunghong Choi},
title={Prediction of Voice Phishing Victimization by Age Groups Using Principal Component Analysis: A Comparison of Regression Analysis and VAR Model Performance},
journal={Journal of The Korea Society of Computer and Information},
issn={1598-849X},
year={2025},
volume={30},
number={2},
pages={33-43}
TY - JOUR
AU - Jungwoo Bae
AU - Byunghong Choi
TI - Prediction of Voice Phishing Victimization by Age Groups Using Principal Component Analysis: A Comparison of Regression Analysis and VAR Model Performance
JO - Journal of The Korea Society of Computer and Information
PY - 2025
VL - 30
IS - 2
PB - The Korean Society Of Computer And Information
SP - 33
EP - 43
SN - 1598-849X
AB - Voice phishing victimization data exhibit distinct temporal patterns. This study compares the predictive performance of VAR and multiple linear regression models, considering their ability to capture time-series volatility. Principal component analysis was applied to voice phishing data (Jan 2018-Sep 2024), identifying three patterns explaining 99.31% of variation. An optimal window size of 12 months was determined through AIC testing to avoid overfitting. Model validation controlling for seasonal variability using Jul-Sep 2024 data showed the VAR model (MAE 33.06, MAPE 14.72%, RMSE 56.41, R² 0.94) outperformed multiple linear regression by 2-3 times across all metrics. The VAR model was then used to predict victimization for February 2025, with 95% confidence intervals accounting for data volatility. Results predicted decreased victimization across all age groups, leading to suggestions for age-specific prevention strategies.
KW - Voice phishing;Principal Component Analysis;VAR model;Time series analysis;Regression analysis
DO -
UR -
ER -
Jungwoo Bae and Byunghong Choi. (2025). Prediction of Voice Phishing Victimization by Age Groups Using Principal Component Analysis: A Comparison of Regression Analysis and VAR Model Performance. Journal of The Korea Society of Computer and Information, 30(2), 33-43.
Jungwoo Bae and Byunghong Choi. 2025, "Prediction of Voice Phishing Victimization by Age Groups Using Principal Component Analysis: A Comparison of Regression Analysis and VAR Model Performance", Journal of The Korea Society of Computer and Information, vol.30, no.2 pp.33-43.
Jungwoo Bae, Byunghong Choi "Prediction of Voice Phishing Victimization by Age Groups Using Principal Component Analysis: A Comparison of Regression Analysis and VAR Model Performance" Journal of The Korea Society of Computer and Information 30.2 pp.33-43 (2025) : 33.
Jungwoo Bae, Byunghong Choi. Prediction of Voice Phishing Victimization by Age Groups Using Principal Component Analysis: A Comparison of Regression Analysis and VAR Model Performance. 2025; 30(2), 33-43.
Jungwoo Bae and Byunghong Choi. "Prediction of Voice Phishing Victimization by Age Groups Using Principal Component Analysis: A Comparison of Regression Analysis and VAR Model Performance" Journal of The Korea Society of Computer and Information 30, no.2 (2025) : 33-43.
Jungwoo Bae; Byunghong Choi. Prediction of Voice Phishing Victimization by Age Groups Using Principal Component Analysis: A Comparison of Regression Analysis and VAR Model Performance. Journal of The Korea Society of Computer and Information, 30(2), 33-43.
Jungwoo Bae; Byunghong Choi. Prediction of Voice Phishing Victimization by Age Groups Using Principal Component Analysis: A Comparison of Regression Analysis and VAR Model Performance. Journal of The Korea Society of Computer and Information. 2025; 30(2) 33-43.
Jungwoo Bae, Byunghong Choi. Prediction of Voice Phishing Victimization by Age Groups Using Principal Component Analysis: A Comparison of Regression Analysis and VAR Model Performance. 2025; 30(2), 33-43.
Jungwoo Bae and Byunghong Choi. "Prediction of Voice Phishing Victimization by Age Groups Using Principal Component Analysis: A Comparison of Regression Analysis and VAR Model Performance" Journal of The Korea Society of Computer and Information 30, no.2 (2025) : 33-43.
