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Exploring the long and short-term equilibrium of PCTC charter rates with VECM

  • Journal of The Korea Society of Computer and Information
  • Abbr : JKSCI
  • 2025, 30(4), pp.161~168
  • Publisher : The Korean Society Of Computer And Information
  • Research Area : Engineering > Computer Science
  • Received : March 27, 2025
  • Accepted : April 24, 2025
  • Published : April 30, 2025

Sangseop Lim 1 Seokhun Kim 2

1한국해양대학교
2배재대학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

This study employs VECM to explore the dynamic relationships among PCTC charter rate, LIBOR, car trade volume, and Dubai oil prices. Johansen cointegration confirms a long-term equilibrium, while VECM shows freight rates are suppressed by interest rates and oil prices but supported by trade volume. IRF reveals freight shocks strongly affect itself and interest rates, with temporary oil price impacts and minimal trade volume response. FEVD indicates 77% of freight variance is self-driven, 12% from interest rates, 10% from trade volume; interest rates rely 36% on freight, trade volume 53% on oil prices, and oil prices 94% on itself. This highlights complex cost-demand interactions in shipping, offering practical insights.

Citation status

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