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Machine Learning-based Learning-to-Rank Approach for Horse Race Prediction and Web Service Development

  • Journal of The Korea Society of Computer and Information
  • Abbr : JKSCI
  • 2025, 30(11), pp.311~318
  • Publisher : The Korean Society Of Computer And Information
  • Research Area : Engineering > Computer Science
  • Received : September 1, 2025
  • Accepted : October 22, 2025
  • Published : November 28, 2025

Yubin So 1 Eunbi Woo 1 Hanjun Lee 1

1명지대학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

This study presents a Learning-to-Rank (LTR)-based machine learning approach for predicting relative rankings in horse races. Using 9,140 race records from the Korea Racing Authority (May 2024 – April 2025), we evaluate and compare three Gradient Boosted Decision Tree (GBDT) models: LightGBM, XGBoost, and CatBoost. The proposed framework applies the Listwise LambdaRank technique to optimize overall rankings and assesses performance using NDCG, MAP, and MRR metrics. Results show that CatBoost achieved the highest ranking quality (NDCG = 0.8895, MAP = 0.4204), while LightGBM and XGBoost delivered superior prediction accuracy in practical betting scenarios. Feature importance analysis revealed that recent race performance, overall average rank, assigned weight, and horse age are key predictive factors. Finally, we developed a user-friendly web-based prediction system that visualizes ranking results and supports intuitive decision-making, even for novice users. The proposed framework offers a practical and interpretable solution for accurate horse race prediction.

Citation status

* References for papers published after 2024 are currently being built.