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Long-run and Short-run Effects of Rainfall on Livestock Production in Kenya

  • Journal of Regional Studies and Development
  • Abbr : JRSD
  • 2022, 31(1), pp.1-19
  • DOI : 10.22739/ipaid.2022.31.1.1
  • Publisher : Institute for Poverty Alleviation and International Development: IPAID
  • Research Area : Social Science > Area Studies > Regional Studies in general > Comparative / Statistical Regional Studies
  • Received : January 19, 2022
  • Accepted : March 23, 2022
  • Published : April 30, 2022

Joceline Mugoli Bahagarhe 1 Yoonsuk Lee 1

1강원대학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

Climate change is a major factor to affect food supply. The role of a livestock sector has became an important food source of the population growth in Africa. This study analyses relationships between rainfall, population and various livestock production such as cattle, sheep, goat, pig, chicken, camel in Kenya, respectively. The Auto Regressive Distributed Lag(ARDL) is utilized to estimate long-run relationship among variables at different levels and an error correction model is used for short run dynamics. Based on the existence of a long-run relationship, Granger causality is applied for testing causal relation between the selected variables. From the results of ARDL model, cattle, sheep, goat, pig and chicken in Kenya show the long-run relationship with rainfall and population respectively, however, for camel production there is no long-run relationship. Based on the presence of the long-run relationships, short-run dynamics among the variables are determined by the error correction model. The results determine the speed at which a variable goes back to an equilibrium after a deviation. The results of Granger causality show that the causal relation between livestock and population is closer than the relation between livestock and rainfall.

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* References for papers published after 2022 are currently being built.