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Heuristic Projections of Solvency and Contribution Risks Due to Non-Stationary Stochastic Rates of Return - in view of Optimal Pension Funding -

  • Journal of Insurance and Finance
  • 2004, 15(3), pp.61-92
  • Publisher : Korea Insurance Research Institute
  • Research Area : Social Science > Business Management

Sung Jooho 1

1경희대학교

Candidate

ABSTRACT

This study follows up the earlier works of Haberman & Sung (1994, 2002, 2004) who have adopted a dynamic approach to pension funding in order to control and harmonize simultaneously the contribution risk and the solvency risk, based on a linear stochastic dynamic system with a quadratic optimisation criterion (LQP problem). In contrast to these earlier works, we here consider funding plans for defined benefit mature pension schemes where the spread method is used to eliminate the solvency surpluses and deficiencies evaluated in relation to their own expecting funding targets. Moreover, we consider the infinite-time, non-stationary LQP optimisation control problem due to trending non-stationary rates of return, which is a theoretical extension of Sung (2003) dealing with deterministic approach. We note that it is insoluble but propose a heuristic optimisation procedure for solving this problem and then illustrate with a specific numerical projections of contribution and solvency risks.

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