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Measuring Investment Psychology and Structural Changes in Korean Residential Property Market

Jo, Kyung-June 1

1NH농협은행

Accredited

ABSTRACT

Asset market and Spatial market illustrate how residential property market works representatively. There had been close relationship between those two markets in South Korea before Global crisis in 2009. However, after the event, residential property market has not been able to trace rental market because of structural changes. In order to observe structural changes of the relationship, calculating investment psychology (Real Expected House Price Appreciation: REHPA) was conducted first. REHPA includes price-rent ratio, open interest rate and expected inflation. Furthermore we employed Chow’s break point test for determining breakpoint of residential property market, unit root test for time-series validity, Granger causality test for finding which series lead another. Finally, cointegration test to analyze the long-run equilibrium relationship between investment psychology and house prices. Through those test, we conclude that REHPA has leaded residential property market with stable long-run equilibrium only after the Global Crisis unlike before.

Citation status

* References for papers published after 2022 are currently being built.