2021, Vol.30, No.5

Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment 2023 KCI Impact Factor : 0.51

pISSN : 1225-7184
https://journal.kci.go.kr/kseia

Since the thermal stratification in a reservoir inhibits the vertical mixing of the upper and lower layers and causes the formation of a hypoxia layer and the enhancement of nutrients release from the sediment, changes in the stratification structure of the reservoir according to future climate change are very important in terms of water quality and aquatic ecology management. This study was aimed to develop a data-driven inflow water temperature prediction model for Daecheong Reservoir (DR), and to predict future inflow water temperature and the stratification structure of DR considering future climate scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). The random forest (RF)regression model (NSE 0.97, RMSE 1.86°C, MAPE 9.45%) developed to predict the inflow temperature of DR adequately reproduced the statistics and variability of the observed water temperature. Future meteorological data for each RCP scenario predicted by the regional climate model (HadGEM3-RA) was input into RF model to predict the inflow water temperature, and a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model (AEM3D) was used to predict the change in the future (2018~2037, 2038~2057, 2058~2077, 2078~2097) stratification structure of DR due to climate change. As a result, the rates of increase in air temperature and inflow water temperature was 0.14~0.48°C/10year and 0.21~0.41°C/10year,respectively. As a result of seasonal analysis, in all scenarios except spring and winter in the RCP 2.6, the increase in inflow water temperature was statistically significant, and the increase rate was higher as the carbon reduction effort was weaker. The increase rate of the surface water temperature of the reservoir was in the range of 0.04~0.38°C/10year, and the stratification period was gradually increased in all scenarios. In particular, when the RCP 8.5 scenario is applied, the number of stratification days is expected to increase by about 24 days. These results were consistent with the results of previous studies that climate change strengthens the stratification intensity of lakes and reservoirs and prolonged the stratification period, and suggested that prolonged water temperature stratification could cause changes in the aquatic ecosystem, such as spatial expansion of the low-oxygen layer, an increase in sediment nutrient release, and changed in the dominant species of algae in the water body.

The environmental impact assessment(EIA) project in Korea has undergone changes and revisions in various evaluation items for about 30 years after the introduction of the Environmental Conservation Act (1997). However, despite the importance of land use evaluation items under the current EIA Act, there are insufficient studies to consider. Therefore, this study focused on the landuse evaluation items based on the EIA guidelines, reviewed 90 of the evaluation documents and consultation documents, and tried to suggest implications and supplementary points forthe domestic EIA land-use evaluation items. As a result, the paradigm was changing from land efficiency centered on development in the past to land efficiency centered on the natural environment and resource conservation. However, in spite of the manual for fitting the paradigm change, opinions on the conservation of the natural environment are still being drawn in the consultation document, so it needs improvement. Two improvements in the impact assessment process suggested in this study are the establishment of standardized spatial data and a quantitative impact and reduction method evaluation tool based on it. In particular, there is a need for a plan evaluation tool for land use arrangement and distribution that can solve the needs of minimizing damage to the natural environment and securing green space and a green network.

Sprawling development factors in rural areas are adversely affecting the rural landscape and furtherthreatening the safety of localresidents. Through the case of Jinan-gun, the government intends to promote sustainable preservation and improvement of beautiful rural landscapes by studying landscape management plans for sprawling development factors and suggesting landscape and environmental improvement plans. In order to analyze the problems of the target site, opinions were collected through analysis of the surrounding environment and resident interviews. As a result of the analysis, in case of Jinan-gun, odorreduction management in harmful facilities was the most urgent, and this study planned the relocation of harmful facilities and ecofriendly smart livestock districts.