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Habitat prediction and impact assessment of Neolitsea sericea (Blume) Koidz. under Climate Change in Korea

윤종학 1 中尾勝洋 2 Jung-Hyun Kim 3 김선유 3 박찬호 3 이병윤 3

1국립생태원생태평가팀
2일본 산림총합연구소
3국립생물자원관

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ABSTRACT

The research was carried out in order to find climate factors which determine the distributionof Neolitsea sericea, and the potential habitats (PHs) under the current climate and three climatechange scenario by using species distribution models (SDMs). Four climate factors; the minimumtemperature of the coldest month (TMC), the warmth index (WI), summer precipitation (PRS),and winter precipition (PRW) : were used as independent variables for the model. Three generalcirculation models under A1B emission scenarios were used as future climate scenarios for the2050s (2040~2069) and 2080s (2070~2099). Highly accurate SDMs were obtained for N. sericea. Themodel of distribution for N. sericea constructed by SDMs showed that minimum temperature ofthe coldest month (TMC) is a major climate factor in determining the distribution of N. sericea. Thearea above the -4.4℃ of TMC revealed high occurrence probability of the N. sericea. Future PHsfor N. sericea were projected to increase respectively by 4 times, 6.4 times of current PHs under2050s and 2080s. It is expected that the potential of N. sericea habitats is expanded gradually. N. sericea is applicable as indicator species for monitoring in the Korean Peninsula. N. sericea isnecessary to be monitored of potential habitats.

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* References for papers published after 2022 are currently being built.