기후변화 시나리오 앙상블을 통한 오미자의 재배적지 변화 예측 (Predicting change of suitable plantation of Schisandra chinensis with ensemble of climate change scenario)

이솔애; 이상혁 (Sang-Hyuk Lee); 지승용; 최재용 (Jaeyong Choi)

doi:10.14249/eia.2016.25.1.77

Predicting change of suitable plantation of Schisandra chinensis with ensemble of climate change scenario

Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
Abbr : J EIA
2016, 25(1), pp.77-87
DOI : 10.14249/eia.2016.25.1.77
Publisher : Korean Society Of Environmental Impact Assessment
Research Area : Engineering > Environmental Engineering

이솔애 ¹, Sang-Hyuk Lee ², 지승용 ¹, Jaeyong Choi ¹

¹충남대학교 산림환경자원학과
²충남대학교 농업과학연구소

Accredited

ABSTRACT

Predicting possible distributed area of Schisandra chinensis which has long term cultivation period among non-timber forest products is needed to be studied to deal with climate change. Hence, distribution of Schisandra chinensis in the 2050s and 2070s was predicted under two scenario, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, with ensemble of 5 climate models used in IPCC AR5. According to estimation using RCP 4.5, distribution of Schisandra chinensis in 2050s appeared to decrease 43% of current area and appeared to decrease 57% in 2070s respectively. Moreover, According to estimation using RCP 8.5, distribution of Schisandra chinensis in 2050s appeared to decrease 55% of current area and appeared to decrease 85% in 2070s. As a final outcome, Schisandra chinensis was estimated to extinct in the future except Gangwon-do and Gyeongsangbuk-do when analyzing change between current distributed area and future distributed area. As a result, those areas were classified as vulnerable areas to climate change. Therefore, Gangwon-do and Gyeongsangbuk-do were thought to be ideal for growing Schisandra chinensis. The result from this study can be used to provide basic information for selecting proper area of Schisandra chinensis considering climate change effect.

KEYWORDS

CMIP5, RCP, SDM, Maxent, Non-timber forest Products

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Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment 2023 KCI Impact Factor : 0.51

Predicting change of suitable plantation of Schisandra chinensis with ensemble of climate change scenario

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Citation status

* References for papers published after 2023 are currently being built.

Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment 2023 KCI Impact Factor : 0.51

Predicting change of suitable plantation of Schisandra chinensis with ensemble of climate change scenario

ABSTRACT

KEYWORDS

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