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Prediction of Potential Habitat of Japanese evergreen oak (Quercus acuta Thunb.) Considering Dispersal Ability Under Climate Change

  • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
  • Abbr : J EIA
  • 2018, 27(3), pp.291-306
  • Publisher : Korean Society Of Environmental Impact Assessment
  • Research Area : Engineering > Environmental Engineering

Man-Seok Shin 1 Seo, Chang Wan 2 박선욱 3 Seungbum Hong 2 김진용 2 Ja-Young Jeon 2 Lee, Myung-Woo 1

1전북대학교
2국립생태원
3경희대학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

This study was designed to predict potential habitat of Japanese evergreen oak (Quercus acuta Thunb.) in Korean Peninsula considering its dispersal ability under climate change. We used a species distribution model (SDM) based on the current species distribution and climatic variables. To reduce the uncertainty of the SDM, we applied nine single-model algorithms and the preevaluation weighted ensemble method. Two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) were used to simulate the distribution of Japanese evergreen oak in 2050 and 2070. The final future potential habitat was determined by considering whether it will be dispersed from the current habitat. The dispersal ability was determined using the Migclim by applying three coefficient values (θ = -0.005, θ = -0.001 and θ = -0.0005) to the dispersal-limited function and unlimited case. All the projections revealed potential habitat of Japanese evergreen oak will be increased in Korean Peninsula except the RCP 4.5 in 2050. However, the future potential habitat of Japanese evergreen oak was found to be limited considering the dispersal ability of this species. Therefore, estimation of dispersal ability is required to understand the effect of climate change and habitat distribution of the species.

Citation status

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