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@article{ART002935927},
author={Hyomin Park and Kim, Minkyung and Lee, Sang-Don},
title={Adaption of Phenological Events in Seoul Metropolitan and Suburbs to Climate Change},
journal={Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment},
issn={1225-7184},
year={2023},
volume={32},
number={1},
pages={49-59}

TY - JOUR
AU - Hyomin Park
AU - Kim, Minkyung
AU - Lee, Sang-Don
TI - Adaption of Phenological Events in Seoul Metropolitan and Suburbs to Climate Change
JO - Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
PY - 2023
VL - 32
IS - 1
PB - Korean Society Of Environmental Impact Assessment
SP - 49
EP - 59
SN - 1225-7184
AB - The rapid advance of technology has accelerated global warming. As 50.4 percent of South Korea’s population is concentrated in the Seoul Metropolitan Area, which has become a considerable emitter of greenhouse gases, the city’s average temperature is expected to increase more rapidly than in other areas in the country. A rise in the average temperature would affect everyday life and urban ecology; thus, appropriate measures to cope with the forthcoming disaster are in need. This study analyzed the changes in plant phenological phases from the past to the present based on temperatures (average temperature of Feb, Mar, April) observed in seven different weather stations nearthe Seoul Metropolitan Area (Ganghwa, Seoul, Suwon, Yangpyeong, Icheon, Incheon, and Paju) and the first flowering dates of Plum tree (Prunus mume), Korean forsythia (Forsythia koreana), Korean rosebay (Rhododendron mucronulatum), Cherry tree (Prunus serrulate), Peach tree (Prunus persica), and Pear tree (Pyrus serotina). Then, RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios were used to predict the future temperature in the Seoul Metropolitan Area and how it will affect plant phenological phases. Furthermore, the study examined the differences in the flowering dates depending on various strategies to mitigate greenhouse gases. The result showed that the rate of plant phenological change had been accelerated since the 1900s.If emission levels remain unchanged, plants will flower from 18 to 29 earlier than they do now in the Seoul Metropolitan Area, which would be faster than in other areas in the country. This is because the FFD (First Flowering Date), is highly related to temperature changes. The Seoul Metropolitan Area, which has been urbanized more rapidly than any other areas, is predicted to become a temperature warming, forcing the FFDs of the area to occur faster than in the rest of the country. Changes in phenology can lead to ecosystem disruption by causing mismatches in species interacting with each otherin an ecosystem. Therefore, it is necessary to establish strategies against temperature warming and FFD change due to urbanization.
KW - First Flowering Date;RCP scenarios;Seoul metropolitan areas;Phenological events;Food chains
DO -
UR -
ER -

Hyomin Park, Kim, Minkyung and Lee, Sang-Don. (2023). Adaption of Phenological Events in Seoul Metropolitan and Suburbs to Climate Change. Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment, 32(1), 49-59.

Hyomin Park, Kim, Minkyung and Lee, Sang-Don. 2023, "Adaption of Phenological Events in Seoul Metropolitan and Suburbs to Climate Change", Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment, vol.32, no.1 pp.49-59.

Hyomin Park, Kim, Minkyung, Lee, Sang-Don "Adaption of Phenological Events in Seoul Metropolitan and Suburbs to Climate Change" Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment 32.1 pp.49-59 (2023) : 49.

Hyomin Park, Kim, Minkyung, Lee, Sang-Don. Adaption of Phenological Events in Seoul Metropolitan and Suburbs to Climate Change. 2023; 32(1), 49-59.

Hyomin Park, Kim, Minkyung and Lee, Sang-Don. "Adaption of Phenological Events in Seoul Metropolitan and Suburbs to Climate Change" Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment 32, no.1 (2023) : 49-59.

Hyomin Park; Kim, Minkyung; Lee, Sang-Don. Adaption of Phenological Events in Seoul Metropolitan and Suburbs to Climate Change. Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment, 32(1), 49-59.

Hyomin Park; Kim, Minkyung; Lee, Sang-Don. Adaption of Phenological Events in Seoul Metropolitan and Suburbs to Climate Change. Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment. 2023; 32(1) 49-59.

Hyomin Park, Kim, Minkyung, Lee, Sang-Don. Adaption of Phenological Events in Seoul Metropolitan and Suburbs to Climate Change. 2023; 32(1), 49-59.

Hyomin Park, Kim, Minkyung and Lee, Sang-Don. "Adaption of Phenological Events in Seoul Metropolitan and Suburbs to Climate Change" Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment 32, no.1 (2023) : 49-59.