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East Asian Security in the Multipolar World Order: A Review on the Security Threat Assessment of the Korean Peninsula Amid the Restructuring of International Order

  • Analyses & Alternatives
  • Abbr : A&A
  • 2022, 6(2), pp.37~78
  • DOI : 10.22931/aanda.2022.6.2.002
  • Publisher : Korea Consensus Institute
  • Research Area : Social Science > Social Science in general
  • Received : June 14, 2022
  • Accepted : July 10, 2022
  • Published : July 31, 2022

SUNGWON LEE 1

1충북대학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

The U.S.-led international order, sustained by overwhelming national power since the end of the Cold War, is gradually being restructured from a unipolar international system to a bipolar international system or a multipolar international system, coupled with the weakening of U.S. global leadership and the rise of regional powers. Geopolitically, discussions have been constantly raised about the security instability that the reshaping of the international order will bring about, given that East Asia is a region where the national interests of the United States and regional powers sharply overlap and conflict. This study aims to critically analyze whether security discussions in Korea are based on appropriate crisis assessment and evaluation. This paper points out that the security crisis theory emerging in Korea tends to arise due to threat exaggeration and emphasizes the need for objective evaluation and conceptualization of the nature and the level of threats that the restructured international order can pose to regional security. Based on the analysis of changes in conflict patterns (frequency and intensity), occurring in East Asia during the periods divided into a bipolar system (1950-1990), a unipolar system (1991-2008), and a multipolar system (2009-current), this study shows that East Asia has not been as vulnerable to power politics as other regions. This investigation emphasizes that the complexity of Korea’s diplomatic and security burden, which are aggravated by the reorganization of the international order, do not necessarily have to be interpreted as a grave security threat. This is because escalating unnecessary security issues could reduce the diplomatic strategic space of the Republic of Korea.

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