@article{ART003375119},
author={Qi Pang and Shouzhi Zhang},
title={Population Shrinkage and Aging in Northeast China: Spatio-temporal Coupling, Regional Disparities, and Future Trends in Jilin Province},
journal={Asia Review},
issn={2234-0386},
year={2026},
volume={16},
number={2},
pages={173-210}
TY - JOUR
AU - Qi Pang
AU - Shouzhi Zhang
TI - Population Shrinkage and Aging in Northeast China: Spatio-temporal Coupling, Regional Disparities, and Future Trends in Jilin Province
JO - Asia Review
PY - 2026
VL - 16
IS - 2
PB - 아시아연구소
SP - 173
EP - 210
SN - 2234-0386
AB - Global urbanization and demographic transitions have led to a “dual compression” of population shrinkage and aging, posing severe challenges to sustainable regional development. Taking Jilin Province—a typical region with a shrinking population in northeast China—as a case study, this paper investigates the spatio-temporal evolution and coupling relationship of these two demographic phenomena at the county level from 2000 to 2020. Utilizing data from three National Population Censuses, we applied Pearson correlation analysis, the Dagum Gini coefficient, and the GM(1,1) Grey prediction model to quantify regional disparities and forecast future trends. The results indicate the following: (1) Jilin Province experienced accelerating population shrinkage and a significant deepening of aging, with the correlation coefficient between the two reaching 0.93 over the 2000–2020 period, exhibiting a high degree of coupling. (2) Spatially, shrinkage is concentrated in western agricultural areas and southeastern forestry regions, while aging shows a transition from “Mature” to “Aged III” types. (3) A decomposition analysis reveals that intra-group differences in aging levels are narrowing, whereas inter-group differences are intensifying. (4) The GM(1,1) model predicts that by 2030, Jilin’s population will decline by another 12.46%, with the aging rate reaching 29.5%. This study provides critical empirical evidence and predictive insights for optimizing regional planning in regions where populations are shrinking.
KW - Population shrinkage;Population aging;Spatio-temporal coupling;GM(1;1) Prediction;Northeast China
DO -
UR -
ER -
Qi Pang and Shouzhi Zhang. (2026). Population Shrinkage and Aging in Northeast China: Spatio-temporal Coupling, Regional Disparities, and Future Trends in Jilin Province. Asia Review, 16(2), 173-210.
Qi Pang and Shouzhi Zhang. 2026, "Population Shrinkage and Aging in Northeast China: Spatio-temporal Coupling, Regional Disparities, and Future Trends in Jilin Province", Asia Review, vol.16, no.2 pp.173-210.
Qi Pang, Shouzhi Zhang "Population Shrinkage and Aging in Northeast China: Spatio-temporal Coupling, Regional Disparities, and Future Trends in Jilin Province" Asia Review 16.2 pp.173-210 (2026) : 173.
Qi Pang, Shouzhi Zhang. Population Shrinkage and Aging in Northeast China: Spatio-temporal Coupling, Regional Disparities, and Future Trends in Jilin Province. 2026; 16(2), 173-210.
Qi Pang and Shouzhi Zhang. "Population Shrinkage and Aging in Northeast China: Spatio-temporal Coupling, Regional Disparities, and Future Trends in Jilin Province" Asia Review 16, no.2 (2026) : 173-210.
Qi Pang; Shouzhi Zhang. Population Shrinkage and Aging in Northeast China: Spatio-temporal Coupling, Regional Disparities, and Future Trends in Jilin Province. Asia Review, 16(2), 173-210.
Qi Pang; Shouzhi Zhang. Population Shrinkage and Aging in Northeast China: Spatio-temporal Coupling, Regional Disparities, and Future Trends in Jilin Province. Asia Review. 2026; 16(2) 173-210.
Qi Pang, Shouzhi Zhang. Population Shrinkage and Aging in Northeast China: Spatio-temporal Coupling, Regional Disparities, and Future Trends in Jilin Province. 2026; 16(2), 173-210.
Qi Pang and Shouzhi Zhang. "Population Shrinkage and Aging in Northeast China: Spatio-temporal Coupling, Regional Disparities, and Future Trends in Jilin Province" Asia Review 16, no.2 (2026) : 173-210.
