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A Time Series Analysis of the Dynamics of Korea-China Relations with GDELT Data

  • Journal of Asia-Pacific Studies
  • Abbr : JAPS
  • 2022, 29(3), pp.37-75
  • DOI : 10.18107/japs.2022.29.3.002
  • Publisher : Institute of Global Affairs
  • Research Area : Social Science > Social Science in general
  • Received : August 9, 2022
  • Accepted : September 15, 2022
  • Published : September 30, 2022

Seong Woo YI 1

1경기연구원

Accredited

ABSTRACT

For 30 years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between Korea and China, China has transformed from a country seeking help and advices from South Korea to a competitor and now into a clumsy hegemon that seeks to achieve its national interest through interference and pressure to the former mentor. A regression analysis was conducted on the bilateral relationship between South Korea and China based on the importance to understand the dynamics of Korea-China diplomacy and the necessity to provide an appropriate policy suggestion to cope with China’s transformation. As a conclusion, the main variables in Korea-China relations are reciprocity, changes in the international order, and the systemic balance of power between the US and China. Regarding the role of the United States in Sino-Korea relations, it can be said that the three-way threat hypothesis works. In other words, the U.S. affects China’s foreign policy toward Korea in terms of the Korea-China bilateral relations, which are neighboring countries in East Asia. The policy proposal to be presented as the conclusion from the statistical analysis requires South Korea’s oppressive and aggressive diplomacy to China and the ROK-US alliance with China in the fields of industry, economy, and technology.

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