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Analysis of Political Change Mechanism in Kyrgyzstan: Focusing on Clan Politics

  • Journal of Asia-Pacific Studies
  • Abbr : JAPS
  • 2023, 30(4), pp.131-174
  • DOI : 10.18107/japs.2023.30.4.005
  • Publisher : Institute of Global Affairs
  • Research Area : Social Science > Social Science in general
  • Received : October 25, 2023
  • Accepted : December 19, 2023
  • Published : December 30, 2023

Seongin Moon 1

1경희대학교 일반대학원 유럽어문학

Accredited

ABSTRACT

Is the ‘revolution’ in Kyrgyzstan ‘democratic’ as commonly understood? Isn’t it ‘packaged’ and presented by images or propaganda? The main purpose of this paper is to answer these questions and analyze the mechanism of political change here based on ‘clan’, a very important factor in this region. For this purpose, the concept of “political survival” of Bueno de Mesquita among the concepts of “political elite survival” was presented as a framework for analysis, and the Kyrgyz cabinet was set as the target of analysis. And data was organized using the ‘a Who is Who’ of Kyrgyzstan and the concepts of “inner” and “outer” circles, which uses to evaluate whether leaders implement a policy of inclusion or exclusion to the posts that hold significant political or administrative power. In addition, the political changes in Kyrgyzstan that occur through interactions between leaders and clans were discussed based on Gurr’s concept of “relative deprivation theory.” As a result of the analysis, political change in Kyrgyzstan is based on ‘clan’ and the mechanism is as follows. When power among clans converges similarly(equally) in the cabinet (especially in the “inner circle”), the clans feel ‘relative deprivation’ and express dissatisfaction and anger towards the leader. This results in political instability, and if this intensifies, political changes will occur. The significance of this paper is that it brings a greater understanding of the political transition in Kyrgyzstan, which has been lacking in the conventional wisdom of ‘democratization’ alone, by examining ‘clan’ and empirical data. And this paper suggests that ‘clan politics’ will continue to influence the future here.

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