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Estimating a Spatial Structural Change in Chungcheong Metropolitan Region Due to Constructing New Cities (Sejong and Naepo): Focusing on the Scenario Based Simulation of Population Changes

  • Journal of Regional Studies and Development
  • Abbr : JRSD
  • 2014, 23(2), pp.197-225
  • Publisher : Institute for Poverty Alleviation and International Development: IPAID
  • Research Area : Social Science > Area Studies > Regional Studies in general > Comparative / Statistical Regional Studies

Gyoungju Lee 1 Im,Jun-Hong 2

1한국교통대학교
2충남발전연구원

Accredited

ABSTRACT

The concentration of population and infrastructures on national capital region has resulted in the overall unbalanced regional development in South Korea, causing many negative external effects. In pursuit of fulfilling the balanced development nationwide, the central government of South Korea pushed ahead with the relocation of national administrative capital by constructing Sejong City. In a similar context, some local governments also seek to move their provincial office buildings to promote balanced development within the local territories. Since these policy efforts, that is carrying out mega projects require the astronomical costs, it is critical to estimate beforehand some critical changes in population and spatial structure of the new cities and adjacent regions as well due to the project. This study suggests a simulation methodology to predict the spatial ripple effect of the population change caused by carrying out mega-project such as the construction of Sejong City and the relocation of Chungcheongnam-do provincial official buildings of. The methodology is built upon the gravity model and it aims at examining some micro-level population changes in adjacent subregions (dong) as well as the newly constructed cities by setting and changing some simulation parameters such as the period of reaching the preset level of projected population, geographical distances to other subregions, etc. Based on empirical analysis results targeting for the two newly constructed cities, some implicit policy actions are discussed to cope with the simulated changes in population and the subsequent spatial structure.

Citation status

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