@article{ART003259634},
author={Hun Shim},
title={A Study on Electricity Demand Forecasting Using the ARIMAX Model},
journal={Journal of Internet of Things and Convergence},
issn={2466-0078},
year={2025},
volume={11},
number={5},
pages={8}
TY - JOUR
AU - Hun Shim
TI - A Study on Electricity Demand Forecasting Using the ARIMAX Model
JO - Journal of Internet of Things and Convergence
PY - 2025
VL - 11
IS - 5
PB - The Korea Internet of Things Society
SP - 8
EP -
SN - 2466-0078
AB - Based on Korea Power Exchange’s electricity consumption data by contract type, this study quantitatively forecasted Korea’s electricity demand. To comprehensively incorporate key explanatory variables such as real GDP growth rate, industrial production index, real electricity price index, cooling/heating degree days, and the expansion of data centers and electric vehicles, an ARIMAX (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables) model was developed. The model’s optimal order was determined using the AIC and BIC criteria and the Ljung–Box test, achieving high predictive accuracy with a MAPE of less than 2% and RMSE within 8TWh. Under the baseline scenario, total electricity demand in 2034 is projected to reach approximately 625TWh, with an uncertainty range of ±25TWh depending on the pace of data center and electric vehicle adoption. Notably, the industrial and commercial/service sectors are expected to account for about 75% of the total increase, highlighting demand management and efficiency improvement as key policy priorities. These findings can inform mid to long term decision-making in areas such as the Basic Electricity Supply and Demand Plan, industrial and EV charging infrastructure development, and power system flexibility enhancement.
KW - Electricity Demand Forecast;ARIMAX;Basic Electricity Supply and Demand Plan;AIC;BIC;Ljung–Box
DO -
UR -
ER -
Hun Shim. (2025). A Study on Electricity Demand Forecasting Using the ARIMAX Model. Journal of Internet of Things and Convergence, 11(5), 8.
Hun Shim. 2025, "A Study on Electricity Demand Forecasting Using the ARIMAX Model", Journal of Internet of Things and Convergence, vol.11, no.5 8.
Hun Shim "A Study on Electricity Demand Forecasting Using the ARIMAX Model" Journal of Internet of Things and Convergence 11.5 8 (2025) : 8.
Hun Shim. A Study on Electricity Demand Forecasting Using the ARIMAX Model. 2025; 11(5), 8.
Hun Shim. "A Study on Electricity Demand Forecasting Using the ARIMAX Model" Journal of Internet of Things and Convergence 11, no.5 (2025) : 8.
Hun Shim. A Study on Electricity Demand Forecasting Using the ARIMAX Model. Journal of Internet of Things and Convergence, 11(5), 8.
Hun Shim. A Study on Electricity Demand Forecasting Using the ARIMAX Model. Journal of Internet of Things and Convergence. 2025; 11(5) 8.
Hun Shim. A Study on Electricity Demand Forecasting Using the ARIMAX Model. 2025; 11(5), 8.
Hun Shim. "A Study on Electricity Demand Forecasting Using the ARIMAX Model" Journal of Internet of Things and Convergence 11, no.5 (2025) : 8.
