2015, Vol.25, No.3

Korea Real Estate Review 2023 KCI Impact Factor : 0.56

pISSN : 2092-5395 / eISSN : 2733-8339
https://journal.kci.go.kr/krer

This study examined the characteristics of the cycle variation of the national housing price index since 1986 and analyzed the effects of macroeconomic variables on housing price index cycle variation for the period after 1990. Firstly, analyzed trend and cycle variation of housing price index, housing purchase price index was in the expansion phase of sixth cycle, housing jeonse price index was in the contraction phase of fifth cycle. However, reference point March 2005, these price indices showed that contraction phase was longer than the period of the expansion phase. Accordingly this result, this study separated periods by March 2005 and examined the effect of macroeconomic variables with respect to housing price index cycle variation by Bayesian VAR Model. The impulse response analysis showed that these price indices showed a generally negative reaction to the interest rate in two periods. However, impulse response function of these housing price indices were shown a change in reaction degree and direction to the other macroeconomic variables. In addition, as a result of variance decomposition, the effect of macroeconomic variables to housing purchase price index was significantly reduced. But the effect of macroeconomic variables to housing jeonse price index was increased and showed the changes in the variables that affect. Considering these results, it may take a different policy approaches with respect to the housing market.

The Publicly Noticed Value of Real Estate Price (PNV) is below actual sales price in Korea. The ratio of PNV to actual sales price is around 65% with some variance by region and type of property. An upward adjustment of the ratio of PNV to actual sales price would lead to an upturn of tax base and amount of property tax since the PNV is used for calculating the tax base. The purpose of this study is to figure out the current level of property tax load of households and estimate the changes of property tax from the change of PNV, which can be a base for fine tuning of policies on tax and PNV system. If the ratio of PNV to actual sales price increase to 80~100% from the current level of around 65%, it is estimated that household’s average Property Tax would increase by 27~64% and household’s average Gross Real Estate Tax would increase by 11~19%. Effective rate of property tax including Property Tax and Gross Real Estate Tax is estimated to increase to 0.23~0.31% from the current level of 0.18%.

This study aims to figure out factors to affect successful bids of land development project area when bidding and to seek the most significant factor among them, in order to secure minimum profits and continuity of the project. As a result of the analysis on 124 units of lands for bidding in housing development lands of 6 project areas in Gyeongbuk region supplied by Gyeongsanbuk-do Development Corporation as the project operator for 8 years from 2005 to 2013, factors to decide land were width of bordering roads, number of roads bordering to the land and building-to-land ratio, and factor for access was minimum distance to parking lot and factor for complex was total number of housing in a complex and environmental factor were area population and land transaction area, respectively. As total number of housing units were more, area per land unit was bigger, width of road was broader and number of roads was higher, it was closer to park and main roads, population in the area under the local government was bigger and land transaction areas in the local government was bigger, successful bidding rate of lands in housing development area was higher.