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An Empirical Study on the Estimation of Housing Sales Price using Spatiotemporal Autoregressive Model

  • Korea Real Estate Review
  • 2014, 24(1), pp.7-14
  • Publisher : korea real estate research institute
  • Research Area : Social Science > Law > Law of Special Parts > Law of Real Estate

Chun Haejung 1 Park, Heonsoo 1

1중앙대학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

This study, as the temporal and spatial data for the real price apartment in Seoul from January 2006 to June 2013, empirically compared and analyzed the estimation result of apartment price using OLS by hedonic price model for the problem of space-time correlation, temporal autoregressive model (TAR) considering temporal effect, spatial autoregressive model (SAR) spatial effect and spatiotemporal autoregressive model (STAR) spatiotemporal effect. As a result, the adjusted R-square of STAR model was increased by 10% compared that of OLS model while the root mean squares error (RMSE) was decreased by 18%. Considering temporal and spatial effect, it is observed that the estimation of apartment price is more correct than the existing model. As the result of analyzing STAR model, the apartment price is affected as follows; area for apartment(-), years of apartment(-), dummy of low-rise(-), individual heating (-), city gas(-), dummy of reconstruction(+), stairs(+), size of complex(+). The results of other analysis method were the same. When estimating the price of real estate using STAR model, the government officials can improve policy efficiency and make reasonable investment based on the objective information by grasping trend of real estate market accurately.

Citation status

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