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A Study on the Global Co-movement & Spillover Effect of Housing Price

  • Korea Real Estate Review
  • 2014, 24(1), pp.39-52
  • Publisher : korea real estate research institute
  • Research Area : Social Science > Law > Law of Special Parts > Law of Real Estate

장영길 1

1건국대학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

This study examines the degree of global co-movement & spillover effect among the housing price of ten major countries of OECD including Korea, based on the 3 hypothesis. The data used in this study is quarterly house price index of OECD countries from 1975 to 2012. VAR model is used to analyze the co-movement, and Granger causality methodology is used for the analysis of Spillover Effect. It is found that entire period of study is that the global house prices showed the co-movement, but the coefficient was weak. Since 2008 global financial crisis, the co-movement increased significantly and the adjusted R-square of this model increased 78% compared to the entire period (1975-2012). In general, all hypotheses in this study were significant, and the common shock hypothesis were most significant. In case of Korea, the degree of co-movement was weak compared to the other countries and spillover effect was independent since 2008.

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